Highway Infrastructure and Local Outcomes: measuring causal impacts of infrastructure investments using a three-step instrumental variable identification strategy
This paper provides an original third-step identification strategy using instrumental variables to evaluate the causal impact of highway investments on the local economy. First, we construct a novel national highway dataset at the municipal level in Brazil using the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) (2007–2018) as a case study. Second, we rely on some of the main infrastructure project costs to propose several costrelated instruments to correct for measurement errors in the road variables. Third, we circumvent the omitted variable bias from the non-random placement of roads by building instruments based on global cost minimization methods, historical plans, and the propensity of a municipality to receive highway interventions. Our identification strategy allows us to identify relevant biases coming from both measurement error and omitted variables. Our preferred estimates point out a reliable road elasticity in the range of 0.011 to 0.017. From this, we calculate a nonbiased return rate to highway infrastructure of 21.3% in Brazil, proving the high rentability of those investments in the developing world context.
