Surplus-oriented fiscal rules and the role of distribution in stabilizing public debt in a neo-Kaleckian model
Over the past half-century, the adoption of fiscal rules has become common among both developed and developing economies. Still, the focus in the literature has been on deficit or balanced-budget positions, while the political economy of primary surpluses and the role of income distribution in affecting growth and debt stability have largely been absent from the debate. This article argues that fiscal policy is, fundamentally, an instrument of class conflict, and that expenditures which guarantee income redistribution can be compatible with debt stability. To formalize this claim, we develop a neo-Kaleckian model that incorporates a fiscal rule designed to ensure a government surplus, along with supply-side constraints. The model shows that, in the long run, there are two possible trajectories for the debt-to-capital ratio, depending on the strength of crowding-out effects associated with public debt, the level of income distribution, the size of the government surplus and the interest rate. In both trajectories, debt stability is possible, meaning that the size of the surplus and the particular arrangement of income distribution promoted are choices of the government. A government pursuing a redistributive fiscal policy to promote social change is not necessarily incompatible with long-run debt stability.
