Financed by the International Labour Organization, the research aims to produce country case studies on multiplier effects of social protection expenditures on Gross Domestic Product, household consumption, and investment in several countries, using the Structural VAR methodology. When used for Brazil, the model indicated a relatively high multiplier effect for social benefits, comparable to the level found for public investments. In this project, the estimation of multipliers for other countries with a methodology similar to that used in Brazil will allow the comparison of results. At a time when several countries are expanding their safety nets to respond to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, the results obtained are even more relevant.
International Labour Organization
Laura Carvalho, Marina Sanches & Dante Cardoso
Financed by the Open Society Foundation, this project aims to assess the impact of fiscal measures taken by the Brazilian government over the past few years on the personal and functional distribution of income, paying particular attention to the policies related to sustaining economic activity during the Covid-19 pandemic, such as Auxílio Emergencial. Furthermore, it intends to map national and international initiatives of Green New Deals, comparing their specificities and evaluating their possible effects. Finally, this project aims to revisit the Brazilian legislation regarding the spending ceiling, comparing it with other international legislation and, based on this comparison, proposing alternative scenarios for controlling government expenditure that are consistent with a green and inclusive economic growth.
Open Society Foundation
Laura Carvalho, Pedro Marques, Rodrigo Toneto, Matias Rebello, Theo Ribas
Financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Mecila is a joint project of the following German and Latin American research institutions: Freie Universität Berlin (coordination); Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut (Berlin); Universität zu Köln (Cologne); Universidade de São Paulo and Centro Brasileiro de Análise e Planejamento (São Paulo); Instituto de Investigaciones en Humanidades y Ciencias Sociales (Universidad Nacional de La Plata/Conicet, La Plata); and El Colegio de México (Mexico City). Mecila examines past and present forms of social, political, and cultural conviviality in Latin America and the Caribbean. It employs conviviality as an analytical concept to describe ways of living together in specific contexts characterized by diversity and inequality. It links studies about interclass, interethnic, intercultural, interreligious, and gender relations in Latin America and the Caribbean with studies about conviviality beyond the region. In doing so, the Centre aims to establish an innovative exchange with benefits for both European and Latin American research.
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
CNPq level 1A Research Productivity Grant awarded to Gilberto Tadeu Lima. The project continues a research agenda that has been developed in recent years in the field of macrodynamics. Its general and specific objectives are (i) Macrodynamics of the use and expansion of the installed productive capacity, income distribution, and economic growth; (ii) Macrodynamics with agent-based modeling (ABM); and (iii) Macrodynamics of economic stabilization with inflation and output targets. It consists of a broad effort to model specific issues in the area of macrodynamics that starts from the epistemological assumption that macroeconomic theory needs stylized models at least as much as it needs stylized facts. Through the elaboration of models based on empirical and theoretically plausible hypotheses, such modeling allows selection, isolation, and analysis of various mechanisms underlying the nexuses and interactions between economic variables of interest.
Gilberto Tadeu Lima
CNPq Level 2 Research Productivity Grant awarded to Laura Carvalho. The project proposes to extend the tradition of Neo-Kaleckian macroeconomic models to incorporate, in addition to the functional distribution of income, changes in the personal distribution of income from work, capital, and wealth. It also aims to introduce redistributive economic policy variables (eg minimum wage, income transfers, tax structure, exchange rate) and their specific effects on aggregate demand and economic growth. Finally, it aims to fill gaps in the literature on the relationship between the productive structure, the composition of employment, the educational level, and the wage distribution in the economy.
This research project aims to identify the style of development that characterized the Brazilian economy during the recent long expansion (2003-2014), to examine the possibilities and limits of combining economic growth and reduction of inequalities. “Style of development,” in the current project, encompasses not only cumulative processes between demand and supply structures but also their relations with the dynamic interaction between demand and income distribution. The framework combines, in this way, the Kaleckian literature on growth and distribution with a strand of Latin-American structuralism that begins with Furtado’s (1966) work on stagnation and culminates with Pinto’s (1976) formulation. Specifically, the project will consist of a series of articles that has three objectives. The first is to investigate empirically the relationship between income distribution, the sectoral composition of households’ aggregate consumption, and the sectoral composition of output and employment, to assess the validity of the underlying elements of the cumulative process that I call the “economic antimiracle” (Rugitsky, 2017). The second is to understand the cyclical dynamics of the profit rate and output, including an examination of the three interpretations about the relation between the distributive conflict, profits, investment, and economic policy suggested by Serrano and Summa (2018), as well as an empirical investigation of the validity of the profit squeeze hypothesis for the Brazilian economy. Last, the third objective is comparing the Brazilian case with that of other South-American economies that were similarly affected by the commodities boom, from the standpoint of both the cumulative process between supply and demand structures and the cyclical dynamics.