NPE 20: Impactos dos ajustes fiscais baseados em tributos diretos e indiretos sobre a distribuição de renda e o crescimento econômico: uma análise para a América do Sul

Por Dante de Souza Cardoso, Matias Cardomingo, Marina Sanches, Theo Ribas e Fernanda Peron Pereira

Pesquisas recentes encontraram evidências de que episódios de consolidação fiscal possuem impactos adversos sobre o crescimento econômico e sobre a distribuição de renda, sendo estes efeitos condicionados ao desenho institucional da política escolhida, que envolve, por exemplo, um corte de despesas ou uma elevação de tributos. Esta nota pretende contribuir para esta discussão ao tratar especificamente dos impactos dos ajustes fiscais via tributação na distribuição de renda e na taxa de crescimento do PIB. Neste caso, consideramos uma amostra de 9 países sul-americanos entre 1990 e 2017 para avaliar, utilizando o método Local Projections, quais as diferenças entre os impactos dos ajustes fiscais baseados em impostos diretos e aqueles baseados em impostos indiretos sobre a desigualdade de renda e sobre o crescimento econômico. A partir disso, encontramos que consolidações fiscais de 1% do PIB, quando baseadas em tributos diretos, podem reduzir a desigualdade de renda em 1,31% para o acumulado de 5 anos, sem que haja efeito estatisticamente significante sobre o crescimento econômico. Os ajustes fiscais de 1% do PIB baseados em tributos indiretos, por sua vez, não apresentaram impactos distributivos significantes. Em termos de crescimento, contudo, estimamos que estes podem gerar uma queda acumulada de 3,41% na atividade econômica em 5 anos.

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