Impactos dos ajustes fiscais baseados em tributos diretos e indiretos sobre a distribuição de renda e o crescimento econômico: uma análise para a América do Sul

Pesquisas recentes encontraram evidências de que episódios de consolidação fiscal possuem impactos adversos sobre o crescimento econômico e sobre a distribuição de renda, sendo estes efeitos condicionados ao desenho institucional da política escolhida, que envolve, por exemplo, um corte de despesas ou uma elevação de tributos. Esta nota pretende contribuir para esta discussão ao tratar especificamente dos impactos dos ajustes fiscais via tributação na distribuição de renda e na taxa de crescimento do PIB. Neste caso, consideramos uma amostra de 9 países sul-americanos entre 1990 e 2017 para avaliar, utilizando o método Local Projections, quais as diferenças entre os impactos dos ajustes fiscais baseados em impostos diretos e aqueles baseados em impostos indiretos sobre a desigualdade de renda e sobre o crescimento econômico. A partir disso, encontramos que consolidações fiscais de 1% do PIB, quando baseadas em tributos diretos, podem reduzir a desigualdade de renda em 1,31% para o acumulado de 5 anos, sem que haja efeito estatisticamente significante sobre o crescimento econômico. Os ajustes fiscais de 1% do PIB baseados em tributos indiretos, por sua vez, não apresentaram impactos distributivos significantes. Em termos de crescimento, contudo, estimamos que estes podem gerar uma queda acumulada de 3,41% na atividade econômica em 5 anos.

 

Referências bibliográficas

AIYAR, S.; EBEKE, C. Inequality of opportunity, inequality of income and economic growth. World Development, 136(-): 105–115, 2020.

AKINCI, M. Inequality and economic growth: Trickle- down effect revisited. Development Policy Review, 36: O1–O24, 2017.

ALESINA, A.; BARBIERO, O.; FAVERO, C.; GIAVAZZI, F.; PARADISI, M. The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Papers 23385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2017.

ALESINA, A.; FAVERO, C.; GIAVAZZI, F. Austerity: When It Works and When It Doesn’t. Princeton University Press, 2019.

ALESINA, A.; PEROTTI, R. Income distribution, political instability, and investment. European Economic Review 40(6): 1203-1228, 1996.

ALESINA, A.; RODRIK, D. Distributive politics and economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, CIX(2): 465-490, 1994.

ATKINSON, A.; STIGLITZ, J. Lectures on public economics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2015.

BALL, L.; FURCERI, D.; LEIGH, D.; LOUNGANI, P. The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Austerity. Manuscript, International Monetary Fund, 2013.

BANERJEE, A. V.; DUFLO, E. Inequality and growth: What can the data say? Journal of Economic Growth, 8(-): 267–299, 2003.

BARRO, R. J. Inequality and growth in a panel of countries. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1): 5–32, 2000.

BERG, A.; OSTRY, J. Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: two sides of the same coin?. Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., 2011.

BERG, A.; OSTRY, J.; TSANGARIDES, C. G.; YAKHSHILIKOV, Y. Redistribution, inequality, and growth: new evidence. Journal of Economic Growth, 23(3): 259–305, 2018.

BREUNIG, R.; MAJEED, O. Inequality, poverty and economic growth. International Economics, 161(-): 83– 99, 2020.

CARABALLO, A; DABÚS, C; DELBIANCO, F. Income inequality and economic growth revisited. A note.Journal of International Development, 2017.

CARDOSO, D.; CARVALHO, L. Effects of fiscal consolidation on income inequality: narrative evidence from South America. FMM Working Paper no 69, IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute, 2021.

CARRIÈRE-SWALLOW, Y.; DAVID, A.C.; LEIGH, D. The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in emerging economies: evidence from Latin America. IMF Working Paper WP/18/142. Washington, D.C, 2018.

CARVALHO, L.; REZAI, A. Personal income inequality and aggregate demand. Cambridge Journal Of Economic, Cambridge, 2016.

CASTELLÒ-CLIMENT. Inequality and growth in advanced economies: an empirical investigation. Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 293-321, 2010.

CINGANO, F. Trends in Income Inequality and its Impacts on Economic Growth. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working paper n. 163. OECD: Paris, 2014.

CLARKE, G. More evidence on income distribution and growth. Journal of Development Economics 47(2): 403-427, 1995.

DAVID, A.; LEIGH, D. A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean. Working paper 18/94 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund), 2018.

DELBIANCO, F.; DABÚS, C.; CARABALLO, M. Income inequality and economic growth: New evidence from Latin America. Cuadernos de Economía, 33(63), 2014.

DELONG, J.; SUMMERS, L. Fiscal policy in a depressed economy [with comments and discussion. Brook. Pap. Econ. Act., 2012: 233–297.

DEVRIES, P.; GUAJARDO, J.; LEIGH, D.; PESCATORI, A. A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation. IMF Working Papers WP/11/128, June, 2011.

EICHENGREEN, B. The return of fiscal policy. Project Syndicate, 2019.

FATÁS, A., SUMMERS, L. The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations. Journal of International Economics, 112 (2018): 238-250.

FORBES, K. A reassessment of the relationship between inequality and growth. American Economic Review 90(4): 869-887, 2000.

FURCERI, D.; JALLES, J.; LOUNGANI, P. Fiscal consolidation and inequality in advanced economies: how robust is the link? Banca d’Italia: Beyond the Austerity Dispute: New Priorities for Fiscal Policy, 2016; 20:13–32.

GOÑI, E; LÓPEZ, J. H.; SERVÉN, L. Fiscal redistribution and income inequality in Latin America. World development, 39.9: 1558-1569, 2011.

GRÜNDLER, K.; SCHEUERMEYER, P. Growth effects of inequality and redistribution: What are the

transmission channels? Journal of Macroeconomics, 55(-): 293–313, 2018.

GUAJARDO, J.; LEIGH, D.; PESCATORI, A. Expansionary Austerity: New International Evidence. IMF Working Paper 11/158, July 2011; 33; Website: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11158. pdf.

HALTER, D.; OECHSLIN, M.; ZWEIMÜLLER, J. Inequality and growth: the neglected time dimension. Journal of Economic Growth, 19(1): 81–104, 2014.

HEIMBERGER, P. The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: evidence for 17 OECD countries over 1978–2013. Empirica, 2020; 47:53–81.

HERZER, D.; VOLLMER, S. Inequality and growth: evidence from panel cointegration. Journal of Economic Inequality, 10(4): 489–503, 2012.

JALLES, J. How do fiscal adjustments change the income distribution in emerging market economies?. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 2017; Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 310-334. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-10- 2015-0219

JORDÁ, Ò. Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections. American Economic Review, 2005; 95(1): 161–82

KALDOR, N. Alternative theories of distribution. The Review of Economic Studies, v. 23, n. 2, p.83-100, 1955.

KALECKI, M. A Theory of Profits. The Economic Journal, v.52, n. 206/207, p.258-267, 1942.

KALECKI, M. Teoria da dinâmica econômica. Coleção Os Economistas. Editora Abril Cultural, [1952] 1978.

KLEIN, M., WINKLER, R. Austerity, inequality, and private debt overhang. European Journal of Political Economy, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.08.003.

KNOWLES, S. Inequality and economic growth: The empirical relationship reconsidered in the light of comparable data. Journal of Development Studies, 41(1): 135–159, 2005.

LAVOIE, M. Post-Keynesian Economics: new foundations. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2014.

LI, H.; ZOU, H. Income inequality is not harmful for growth: theory and evidence. Review of Development Economics 2(3): 318-334, 1998.

LUSTIG, N et al. The impact of taxes and social spending on inequality and poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru: a synthesis of results. Center for Global Development working paper, n. 311, 2012.

OECD. Fiscal consolidation: targets, plans and measures. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 2011, 11(2).

OKUN, A. M. Equality and Efficiency, the Big Tradeoff. Washington: Brookins Institution, 1975.

OSTRY, J.; BERG, A.; TSANGARIDES, C. Redistribution, Inequality and Growth. IMF Staff Discussion Note. IMF, Washington D.C., 2014.

PEROTTI, R. Growth, income distribution and democracy: what the data say. Journal of Economic Growth 1(2): 149-187, 1996.

PERSSON, T.; TABELLINI, G. Is inequality harmful for growth? American Economic Review 84(3): 600-621, 1994.

ROMER, C. D.; ROMER, D. H. The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 2010; 100(3): 763–801.

SANTIAGO, R.; FUINHAS, J. A.; MARQUES, A. C. Income inequality, globalization, and economic growth: a panel vector autoregressive approach for Latin American countries. IN: FUINHAS, J. A.; MARQUES, A. C. (Eds.). The extended energy-growth nexus. Elsevier, 2019.

SOLT, F. Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database. SWIID Version 8.2, November 2019.

SUMMERS, L. US economic prospects: Secular stagnation, hysteresis, and the zero-lower bound. Business economics, 2014, 49(2): 65-73.

VOITCHOVSKY, S. Does the Profile of Income Inequality Matter for Economic Growth? Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 10(3), pages 273-296, 09, 2005.

WOO, J., BOVA, E., KINDA, T.; ZHANG, S. Distributional consequences of fiscal consolidation and the role of fiscal policy: what do the data say?. IMF Working Paper WP/13/195, 2013.