Desigualdade, endividamento e estagnação secular: uma análise de diferentes abordagens da literatura econômica pós-2008

A relativa tendência de estagnação e queda das taxas de juros reais nos países desenvolvidos entre a década de 1980 e 2020 causaram uma controvérsia no debate macroeconômico contemporâneo que ficou conhecida como o debate da Estagnação Secular. Este artigo busca revisar a relação teórica entre desigualdade, endividamento familiar e estagnação partindo dos argumentos teóricos e empíricos desse debate, em especial das abordagens que compreendem a estagnação como fruto de uma persistente escassez de demanda nesses países. A pesquisa contrasta as visões do “zero lower bound economics” com a da economia pós keynesiana, expondo possíveis mecanismos em que o aumento da desigualdade de renda e do endividamento das famílias podem estar associados com tendências estagnacionistas.

Palavras-chave: desigualdade de renda; endividamento das famílias; estagnação secular; zero lower bound; pós- keynesianismo

The relative trend of stagnation and decline in real interest rates in developed countries between the 1980s and 2020 have caused a controversy in the contemporary macroeconomic debate that became known as the Secular Stagnation debate. This paper seeks to review the theoretical relationship between inequality, family indebtedness and stagnation based on the theoretical and empirical arguments of this debate, especially the approaches that understand stagnation as the consequence of a persistent shortage of demand in these countries. The research contrasts the views of economists of the “zero lower bound economics” with those of post- Keynesian economics, exposing possible mechanisms through which rising income inequality and household indebtedness may be associated with stagnationist trends.

Keywords: income inequality; household indebtedness; secular stagnation; zero lower bound; post-keynesianism

JEL: B22, E12, E25, E43, O40

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