WP 05: Desigualdade, endividamento e estagnação secular: uma análise de diferentes abordagens da literatura econômica pós-2008

A rela­ti­va tendência de estagnação e que­da das taxas de juros reais nos países desen­vol­vi­dos entre a década de 1980 e 2020 cau­sa­ram uma controvérsia no deba­te macroeconômico contemporâneo que ficou conhe­ci­da como o deba­te da Estagnação Secu­lar. Este arti­go bus­ca revi­sar a relação teórica entre desi­gual­da­de, endi­vi­da­men­to fami­li­ar e estagnação par­tin­do dos argu­men­tos teóricos e empíricos des­se deba­te, em espe­ci­al das abor­da­gens que com­pre­en­dem a estagnação como fru­to de uma per­sis­ten­te escas­sez de deman­da nes­ses países. A pes­qui­sa con­tras­ta as visões do “zero lower bound eco­no­mics” com a da eco­no­mia pós key­ne­si­a­na, expon­do possíveis meca­nis­mos em que o aumen­to da desi­gual­da­de de ren­da e do endi­vi­da­men­to das famílias podem estar asso­ci­a­dos com tendências estagnacionistas.

Pala­vras-cha­ve: desi­gual­da­de de ren­da; endi­vi­da­men­to das famílias; estagnação secu­lar; zero lower bound; pós- keynesianismo

The rela­ti­ve trend of stag­na­ti­on and decli­ne in real inte­rest rates in deve­lo­ped coun­tri­es betwe­en the 1980s and 2020 have cau­sed a con­tro­versy in the con­tem­po­rary macro­e­co­no­mic deba­te that beca­me known as the Secu­lar Stag­na­ti­on deba­te. This paper seeks to revi­ew the the­o­re­ti­cal rela­ti­onship betwe­en ine­qua­lity, family indeb­ted­ness and stag­na­ti­on based on the the­o­re­ti­cal and empi­ri­cal argu­ments of this deba­te, espe­ci­ally the appro­a­ches that unders­tand stag­na­ti­on as the con­se­quen­ce of a per­sis­tent shor­ta­ge of demand in the­se coun­tri­es. The rese­ar­ch con­trasts the views of eco­no­mists of the “zero lower bound eco­no­mics” with tho­se of post- Key­ne­si­an eco­no­mics, expo­sing pos­si­ble mecha­nisms through whi­ch rising inco­me ine­qua­lity and hou­sehold indeb­ted­ness may be asso­ci­a­ted with stag­na­ti­o­nist trends.

Keywords: inco­me ine­qua­lity; hou­sehold indeb­ted­ness; secu­lar stag­na­ti­on; zero lower bound; post-keynesianism

JEL: B22, E12, E25, E43, O40

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