{"id":3440,"date":"2026-07-24T16:29:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T19:29:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&p=3440"},"modified":"2026-07-31T15:09:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T18:09:55","slug":"uma-regra-de-sahm-para-o-brasil-desemprego-e-alerta-rapido-de-recessoes","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/uma-regra-de-sahm-para-o-brasil-desemprego-e-alerta-rapido-de-recessoes\/","title":{"rendered":"Uma Regra de Sahm para o Brasil: desemprego e alerta r\u00e1pido de recess\u00f5es"},"content":{"rendered":"

Esta Nota de Pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca Econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca pro\u00adp\u00f5e uma adap\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da Regra de Sahm para o Bra\u00adsil, com o obje\u00adti\u00advo de cons\u00adtruir um indi\u00adca\u00addor sim\u00adples, trans\u00adpa\u00adren\u00adte e de r\u00e1pi\u00adda atu\u00ada\u00adli\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o para iden\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adcar o in\u00ed\u00adcio de reces\u00ads\u00f5es. Dife\u00adren\u00adte\u00admen\u00adte das data\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es ofi\u00adci\u00adais, neces\u00adsa\u00adri\u00ada\u00admen\u00adte retros\u00adpec\u00adti\u00advas, uma regra base\u00ada\u00adda em dados men\u00adsais do mer\u00adca\u00addo de tra\u00adba\u00adlho pode apoi\u00adar deci\u00ads\u00f5es de pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca ain\u00adda duran\u00adte a dete\u00adri\u00ado\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde. A Regra de Sahm ori\u00adgi\u00adnal sina\u00adli\u00adza reces\u00ads\u00e3o quan\u00addo a m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de tr\u00eas meses da taxa de desem\u00adpre\u00adgo supe\u00adra em 0,5 pon\u00adto per\u00adcen\u00adtu\u00adal seu menor valor nos doze meses ante\u00adri\u00ado\u00adres. Para apli\u00adc\u00e1-la ao Bra\u00adsil, cons\u00adtru\u00ed\u00admos uma s\u00e9rie men\u00adsal e des\u00adsa\u00adzo\u00adna\u00adli\u00adza\u00adda de desem\u00adpre\u00adgo entre 1980 e 2026, com\u00adpa\u00adti\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo dados da Pes\u00adqui\u00adsa Men\u00adsal de Empre\u00adgo e da PNAD Con\u00adt\u00ed\u00adnua. Em segui\u00adda, tes\u00adta\u00admos dife\u00adren\u00adtes limi\u00ada\u00adres e com\u00adpa\u00adra\u00admos os resul\u00adta\u00addos com a cro\u00adno\u00adlo\u00adgia de reces\u00ads\u00f5es do CODACE-FGV. Os exer\u00adc\u00ed\u00adci\u00ados indi\u00adcam que o limi\u00adar de 0,5 pon\u00adto per\u00adcen\u00adtu\u00adal uti\u00adli\u00adza\u00addo nos Esta\u00addos Uni\u00addos ten\u00adde a sina\u00adli\u00adzar com atra\u00adso par\u00adte das reces\u00ads\u00f5es bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adras. O melhor com\u00adpro\u00admis\u00adso entre rapi\u00addez de detec\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o e fal\u00adsos posi\u00adti\u00advos \u00e9 obti\u00addo com um aumen\u00adto de 0,3 pon\u00adto per\u00adcen\u00adtu\u00adal. Deno\u00admi\u00adna\u00addo Indi\u00adca\u00addor Made, esse gati\u00adlho iden\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adca os prin\u00adci\u00adpais epi\u00ads\u00f3\u00addi\u00ados reces\u00adsi\u00advos do per\u00edo\u00addo, incluin\u00addo as cri\u00adses do final dos anos 1980, de 1995, de 1997\u20131999, de 2001\u20132003, de 2008\u20132009, de 2014\u20132017 e da pan\u00adde\u00admia. O limi\u00adar mais bai\u00adxo pode refle\u00adtir carac\u00adte\u00adr\u00eds\u00adti\u00adcas estru\u00adtu\u00adrais do mer\u00adca\u00addo de tra\u00adba\u00adlho bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adro. A ele\u00adva\u00adda infor\u00adma\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde e a sa\u00ed\u00adda de tra\u00adba\u00adlha\u00addo\u00adres da for\u00ad\u00e7a de tra\u00adba\u00adlho amor\u00adte\u00adcem a res\u00adpos\u00adta do desem\u00adpre\u00adgo aber\u00adto \u00e0 que\u00adda da ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde. Assim, aumen\u00adtos rela\u00adti\u00adva\u00admen\u00adte peque\u00adnos da taxa de deso\u00adcu\u00adpa\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o podem con\u00adter infor\u00adma\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o rele\u00advan\u00adte sobre a dete\u00adri\u00ado\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o c\u00edcli\u00adca. O indi\u00adca\u00addor tam\u00adb\u00e9m sina\u00adli\u00adza epi\u00ads\u00f3\u00addi\u00ados n\u00e3o clas\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adca\u00addos como reces\u00ads\u00f5es pelos m\u00e9to\u00addos tra\u00addi\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais, como 2005\u20132006 e o in\u00ed\u00adcio de 2013, suge\u00adrin\u00addo que dados do mer\u00adca\u00addo de tra\u00adba\u00adlho podem cap\u00adtar per\u00addas de bem-estar n\u00e3o ime\u00addi\u00ada\u00adta\u00admen\u00adte vis\u00ed\u00adveis no PIB. Des\u00adde agos\u00adto de 2021, o indi\u00adca\u00addor n\u00e3o regis\u00adtra nova reces\u00ads\u00e3o, con\u00adfi\u00adgu\u00adran\u00addo o mais lon\u00adgo per\u00edo\u00addo sem reces\u00ads\u00e3o da s\u00e9rie. O Indi\u00adca\u00addor Made n\u00e3o subs\u00adti\u00adtui a data\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do CODACE, mas ofe\u00adre\u00adce um meca\u00adnis\u00admo ope\u00adra\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnal de aler\u00adta r\u00e1pi\u00addo, poten\u00adci\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte \u00fatil para ori\u00aden\u00adtar res\u00adpos\u00adtas fis\u00adcais, mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adri\u00adas e de pro\u00adte\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o social.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Esta Nota de Pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca Econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca pro\u00adp\u00f5e uma adap\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da Regra de Sahm para o Bra\u00adsil, com o obje\u00adti\u00advo de cons\u00adtruir um indi\u00adca\u00addor sim\u00adples, trans\u00adpa\u00adren\u00adte e de r\u00e1pi\u00adda atu\u00ada\u00adli\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o para iden\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adcar o in\u00ed\u00adcio de reces\u00ads\u00f5es. Dife\u00adren\u00adte\u00admen\u00adte das data\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es ofi\u00adci\u00adais, neces\u00adsa\u00adri\u00ada\u00admen\u00adte retros\u00adpec\u00adti\u00advas, uma regra base\u00ada\u00adda em dados men\u00adsais do mer\u00adca\u00addo de tra\u00adba\u00adlho pode apoi\u00adar deci\u00ads\u00f5es de pol\u00edtica [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-3440","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUma Regra de Sahm para o Brasil: desemprego e alerta r\u00e1pido de recess\u00f5es — Made<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/uma-regra-de-sahm-para-o-brasil-desemprego-e-alerta-rapido-de-recessoes\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. 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