{"id":3185,"date":"2025-12-16T08:32:15","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T11:32:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&#038;p=3185"},"modified":"2026-08-18T17:09:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T20:09:19","slug":"afinal-por-que-os-juros-sao-tao-altos-no-brasil","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/afinal-por-que-os-juros-sao-tao-altos-no-brasil\/","title":{"rendered":"Afinal, por que os juros s\u00e3o t\u00e3o altos no Brasil?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">O estu\u00addo inves\u00adti\u00adga por que os juros reais s\u00e3o t\u00e3o ele\u00adva\u00addos e per\u00adsis\u00adten\u00adtes no Bra\u00adsil, atu\u00ada\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo o mode\u00adlo de Segu\u00adra-Ubi\u00ader\u00adgo (2012) com dados anu\u00adais de 15 pa\u00ed\u00adses entre 1996 e 2019 e incor\u00adpo\u00adran\u00addo novos canais expli\u00adca\u00adti\u00advos. A estra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgia emp\u00ed\u00adri\u00adca baseia-se em mode\u00adlos de cor\u00adre\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de erros em pai\u00adnel esti\u00adma\u00addos por GMM, tra\u00adtan\u00addo juros reais, pou\u00adpan\u00ad\u00e7a dom\u00e9s\u00adti\u00adca e vola\u00adti\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde cam\u00adbi\u00adal como vari\u00e1\u00adveis end\u00f3\u00adge\u00adnas e incluin\u00addo, al\u00e9m dos \u201cfun\u00adda\u00admen\u00adtos cl\u00e1s\u00adsi\u00adcos\u201d, o n\u00edvel da meta de infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o, a vola\u00adti\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde da taxa de c\u00e2m\u00adbio real efe\u00adti\u00adva e indi\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres de qua\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde ins\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnal. Os resul\u00adta\u00addos mos\u00adtram que a pou\u00adpan\u00ad\u00e7a dom\u00e9s\u00adti\u00adca exer\u00adce, na melhor das hip\u00f3\u00adte\u00adses, um efei\u00adto mode\u00adra\u00addo e pou\u00adco robus\u00adto sobre os juros reais, e que medi\u00addas usu\u00adais de ris\u00adco-pa\u00eds n\u00e3o expli\u00adcam de for\u00adma con\u00adsis\u00adten\u00adte seu n\u00edvel. Em con\u00adtras\u00adte, juros inter\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais mais altos, mai\u00ador vola\u00adti\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde infla\u00adci\u00ado\u00adn\u00e1\u00adria e, sobre\u00adtu\u00addo, metas de infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o mais bai\u00adxas est\u00e3o sis\u00adte\u00adma\u00adti\u00adca\u00admen\u00adte asso\u00adci\u00ada\u00addos a juros reais mais ele\u00adva\u00addos, tan\u00adto no cur\u00adto quan\u00adto no lon\u00adgo pra\u00adzo. A intro\u00addu\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de uma medi\u00adda de vola\u00adti\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde cam\u00adbi\u00adal mos\u00adtra que moe\u00addas mais ins\u00adt\u00e1\u00adveis ten\u00addem a con\u00advi\u00adver com pr\u00ea\u00admi\u00ados de juros per\u00adsis\u00adten\u00adte\u00admen\u00adte mai\u00ado\u00adres, mes\u00admo con\u00adtro\u00adlan\u00addo por infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o, metas, pou\u00adpan\u00ad\u00e7a e juros exter\u00adnos. Mes\u00admo ap\u00f3s con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adrar esses fato\u00adres, o Bra\u00adsil exi\u00adbe um \u201cpr\u00ea\u00admio\u201d de juros m\u00e9dio de cer\u00adca de 0,9 pon\u00adto per\u00adcen\u00adtu\u00adal aci\u00adma do que seria pre\u00advis\u00adto pelos fun\u00adda\u00admen\u00adtos, suge\u00adrin\u00addo a pre\u00adsen\u00ad\u00e7a de ele\u00admen\u00adtos pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcos e ins\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais idi\u00ados\u00adsin\u00adcr\u00e1\u00adti\u00adcos. Simu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es indi\u00adcam que rever\u00adter par\u00adte das redu\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es recen\u00adtes na meta de infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o e ado\u00adtar medi\u00addas que redu\u00adzam a vola\u00adti\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde cam\u00adbi\u00adal pode\u00adri\u00adam redu\u00adzir sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00adva\u00admen\u00adte os juros reais no Bra\u00adsil, embo\u00adra n\u00e3o eli\u00admi\u00adnem com\u00adple\u00adta\u00admen\u00adte o puzz\u00adle, apon\u00adtan\u00addo para a neces\u00adsi\u00adda\u00adde de apro\u00adfun\u00addar o deba\u00adte sobre o dese\u00adnho do regi\u00adme mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrio e as for\u00ad\u00e7as dom\u00e9s\u00adti\u00adcas que sus\u00adten\u00adtam juros estru\u00adtu\u00adral\u00admen\u00adte elevados.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O estu\u00addo inves\u00adti\u00adga por que os juros reais s\u00e3o t\u00e3o ele\u00adva\u00addos e per\u00adsis\u00adten\u00adtes no Bra\u00adsil, atu\u00ada\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo o mode\u00adlo de Segu\u00ad\u00adra-Ubi\u00ader\u00ad\u00adgo (2012) com dados anu\u00adais de 15 pa\u00ed\u00adses entre 1996 e 2019 e incor\u00adpo\u00adran\u00addo novos canais expli\u00adca\u00adti\u00advos. A estra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgia emp\u00ed\u00adri\u00adca baseia-se em mode\u00adlos de cor\u00adre\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de erros em pai\u00adnel esti\u00adma\u00addos por GMM, tra\u00adtan\u00addo juros reais, poupan\u00e7a&nbsp;[\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[6],"class_list":["post-3185","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-notas-de-politica-economica"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Afinal, por que os juros s\u00e3o t\u00e3o altos no Brasil? &#8212; Made<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/afinal-por-que-os-juros-sao-tao-altos-no-brasil\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/afinal-por-que-os-juros-sao-tao-altos-no-brasil\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/afinal-por-que-os-juros-sao-tao-altos-no-brasil\\\/\",\"name\":\"Afinal, por que os juros s\u00e3o t\u00e3o altos no Brasil? 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