{"id":3153,"date":"2025-12-03T09:24:44","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T12:24:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&#038;p=3153"},"modified":"2026-08-19T15:24:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T18:24:09","slug":"alem-do-fiscal-a-politica-monetaria-e-o-crescimento-da-divida-publica-brasileira","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/alem-do-fiscal-a-politica-monetaria-e-o-crescimento-da-divida-publica-brasileira\/","title":{"rendered":"Al\u00e9m do fiscal: a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e o crescimento da d\u00edvida p\u00fablica brasileira"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">Esta Nota ana\u00adli\u00adsa a estru\u00adtu\u00adra e a tra\u00adje\u00adt\u00f3\u00adria da d\u00edvi\u00adda p\u00fabli\u00adca bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adra, com foco no papel exer\u00adci\u00addo pela taxa b\u00e1si\u00adca de juros. Para isso, apre\u00adsen\u00adta-se ini\u00adci\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte uma decom\u00adpo\u00adsi\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da d\u00edvi\u00adda e de seus inde\u00adxa\u00addo\u00adres, que des\u00adta\u00adca a rele\u00adv\u00e2n\u00adcia das ope\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es com\u00adpro\u00admis\u00adsa\u00addas e dos t\u00edtu\u00adlos p\u00f3s-fixa\u00addos \u00e0 Selic (LFTs) como pecu\u00adli\u00ada\u00adri\u00adda\u00addes que ampli\u00adfi\u00adcam o endi\u00advi\u00adda\u00admen\u00adto local. A an\u00e1\u00adli\u00adse dos con\u00addi\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnan\u00adtes da d\u00edvi\u00adda bru\u00adta do Gover\u00adno Geral (DBGG), entre 2007 e 2025, cor\u00adro\u00adbo\u00adra o prin\u00adc\u00ed\u00adpio de que a din\u00e2\u00admi\u00adca do endi\u00advi\u00adda\u00admen\u00adto p\u00fabli\u00adco \u00e9 deter\u00admi\u00adna\u00adda, sobre\u00adtu\u00addo, pelo dife\u00adren\u00adci\u00adal entre juros e cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto (<span class=\"s1\">r r \u2014 \u2014 g g<\/span>): os juros nomi\u00adnais con\u00adtri\u00adbu\u00ed\u00adram, em m\u00e9dia, com uma vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o posi\u00adti\u00adva de 6,12 pon\u00adtos per\u00adcen\u00adtu\u00adais (p.p.) da DBGG em rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ao PIB (DBGG\/PIB) ao ano, enquan\u00adto o cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco con\u00adtri\u00adbuiu com uma que\u00adda de 5,24 p.p. Em sequ\u00ean\u00adcia, por meio da cons\u00adtru\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de um mode\u00adlo, explo\u00adram-se os canais de trans\u00admis\u00ads\u00e3o do juros e do pri\u00adm\u00e1\u00adrio na evo\u00adlu\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do endi\u00advi\u00adda\u00admen\u00adto. As simu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es indi\u00adcam que uma taxa de juros neu\u00adtra de 9% a.a. gera uma tra\u00adje\u00adt\u00f3\u00adria cres\u00adcen\u00adte da d\u00edvi\u00adda, mes\u00admo com supe\u00adr\u00e1\u00advits pri\u00adm\u00e1\u00adri\u00ados sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00advos. Em con\u00adtras\u00adte, com uma taxa neu\u00adtra de 7% a.a., a d\u00edvi\u00adda se esta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adza. Por fim, a com\u00adpa\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o entre cen\u00e1\u00adri\u00ados de ajus\u00adte fis\u00adcal \u2014 um gra\u00addu\u00adal e outro extre\u00admo \u2014 mos\u00adtra que, embo\u00adra supe\u00adr\u00e1\u00advits mais ele\u00adva\u00addos pos\u00adsam levar&nbsp;a um n\u00edvel menor de endi\u00advi\u00adda\u00admen\u00adto, isto ocor\u00adre \u00e0s cus\u00adtas de menor cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco acu\u00admu\u00adla\u00addo e mai\u00ador vola\u00adti\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca. Assim, con\u00adclui-se que a esta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da d\u00edvi\u00adda depen\u00adde cru\u00adci\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte da cons\u00adtru\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de um ambi\u00aden\u00adte macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco de juros meno\u00adres e cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto robus\u00adto (<span class=\"s1\">r &lt; g r &lt; g<\/span>), e n\u00e3o pode ser alcan\u00ad\u00e7a\u00adda ape\u00adnas por meio de ajus\u00adtes fis\u00adcais, poten\u00adci\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte recessivos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Esta Nota ana\u00adli\u00adsa a estru\u00adtu\u00adra e a tra\u00adje\u00adt\u00f3\u00adria da d\u00edvi\u00adda p\u00fabli\u00adca bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adra, com foco no papel exer\u00adci\u00addo pela taxa b\u00e1si\u00adca de juros. Para isso, apre\u00ad\u00adsen\u00ad\u00adta-se ini\u00adci\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte uma decom\u00adpo\u00adsi\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da d\u00edvi\u00adda e de seus inde\u00adxa\u00addo\u00adres, que des\u00adta\u00adca a rele\u00adv\u00e2n\u00adcia das ope\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es com\u00adpro\u00admis\u00adsa\u00addas e dos t\u00edtu\u00adlos p\u00f3s-fixa\u00ad\u00addos \u00e0 Selic (LFTs) como pecu\u00adli\u00ada\u00adri\u00adda\u00addes que ampli\u00adfi\u00adcam o endi\u00advi\u00adda\u00admen\u00adto&nbsp;local.&nbsp;[\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[6],"class_list":["post-3153","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-notas-de-politica-economica"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Al\u00e9m do fiscal: a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e o crescimento da d\u00edvida p\u00fablica brasileira &#8212; 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