{"id":2938,"date":"2025-09-04T09:55:27","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T12:55:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&#038;p=2938"},"modified":"2026-08-20T15:14:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T18:14:09","slug":"a-dependencia-externa-das-receitas-qual-o-efeito-do-indice-de-commodities-na-receita-total","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/a-dependencia-externa-das-receitas-qual-o-efeito-do-indice-de-commodities-na-receita-total\/","title":{"rendered":"A depend\u00eancia externa das receitas fiscais: qual o efeito do \u00cdndice de Commodities na receita total?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Esta Nota explo\u00adra a rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o entre o \u00cdndi\u00adce de Com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades Bra\u00adsil e a Recei\u00adta no Bra\u00adsil. Os pre\u00ad\u00e7os das com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades s\u00e3o uma vari\u00e1\u00advel impor\u00adtan\u00adte para o Bra\u00adsil, uma vez que elas com\u00adp\u00f5em gran\u00adde par\u00adte de sua pau\u00adta expor\u00adta\u00addo\u00adra. As expor\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o cha\u00adve para o cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco e a acu\u00admu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de reser\u00advas inter\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais. No entan\u00adto, al\u00e9m de afe\u00adtar o cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto, o pre\u00ad\u00e7o de com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades afe\u00adta tam\u00adb\u00e9m as recei\u00adtas p\u00fabli\u00adcas \u2013 e, con\u00adse\u00adquen\u00adte\u00admen\u00adte, o resul\u00adta\u00addo pri\u00adm\u00e1\u00adrio e espa\u00ad\u00e7o para gas\u00adtos den\u00adtro da nova regra fis\u00adcal. Esti\u00adma\u00admos, a par\u00adtir do m\u00e9to\u00addo de Pro\u00adje\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es Locais, o impac\u00adto do \u00cdndi\u00adce de Com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades Bra\u00adsil (agre\u00adga\u00addo e sepa\u00adra\u00addo por agr\u00ed\u00adco\u00adlas, met\u00e1\u00adli\u00adcas e ener\u00adg\u00e9\u00adti\u00adcas) e a Recei\u00adta (agre\u00adga\u00adda e sepa\u00adra\u00adda entre admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00adda, n\u00e3o admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00adda, impos\u00adto de ren\u00adda, impos\u00adto indi\u00adre\u00adto, impos\u00adto sob impor\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o e impos\u00adto sob explo\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de recur\u00adsos natu\u00adrais). Mos\u00adtra\u00admos que a cor\u00adre\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o entre os pre\u00ad\u00e7os das com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades e a recei\u00adta \u00e9 posi\u00adti\u00adva e sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00adva: um aumen\u00adto de 1 pon\u00adto per\u00adcen\u00adtu\u00adal no \u00cdndi\u00adce de Com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades aumen\u00adta, em m\u00e9dia, em 0,18% o PIB e em 0,34% a recei\u00adta total. Tal cor\u00adre\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 expli\u00adca\u00adda prin\u00adci\u00adpal\u00admen\u00adte pelo resul\u00adta\u00addo na arre\u00adca\u00adda\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de impos\u00adto de ren\u00adda e de explo\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de recur\u00adsos natu\u00adrais. Para as dife\u00adren\u00adtes com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades, encon\u00adtra\u00admos que as agr\u00ed\u00adco\u00adlas t\u00eam um impac\u00adto alto mas ape\u00adnas para alguns meses ap\u00f3s o cho\u00adque, enquan\u00adto um cho\u00adque no pre\u00ad\u00e7o das com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades met\u00e1\u00adli\u00adcas e ener\u00adg\u00e9\u00adti\u00adcas exer\u00adcem um impac\u00adto posi\u00adti\u00advo na recei\u00adta que se man\u00adt\u00e9m mes\u00admo ap\u00f3s 12 meses. Des\u00adse modo, ciclos de alta de com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades ofe\u00adre\u00adcem opor\u00adtu\u00adni\u00adda\u00adde fun\u00adda\u00admen\u00adtal para expan\u00addir pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas p\u00fabli\u00adcas e inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adtos esta\u00adtais que pro\u00admo\u00advam desen\u00advol\u00advi\u00admen\u00adto econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco e dis\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de ren\u00adda. Por outro lado, ciclos de bai\u00adxa podem gerar desa\u00adfi\u00ados fis\u00adcais seve\u00adros, exi\u00adgin\u00addo pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas que pro\u00adte\u00adjam gas\u00adtos essen\u00adci\u00adais do gover\u00adno con\u00adtra cho\u00adques exter\u00adnos para man\u00adter o papel redis\u00adtri\u00adbu\u00adti\u00advo e de gera\u00addor de cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto e desen\u00advol\u00advi\u00admen\u00adto do Estado.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Esta Nota explo\u00adra a rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o entre o \u00cdndi\u00adce de Com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades Bra\u00adsil e a Recei\u00adta no Bra\u00adsil. Os pre\u00ad\u00e7os das com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades s\u00e3o uma vari\u00e1\u00advel impor\u00adtan\u00adte para o Bra\u00adsil, uma vez que elas com\u00adp\u00f5em gran\u00adde par\u00adte de sua pau\u00adta expor\u00adta\u00addo\u00adra. As expor\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o cha\u00adve para o cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco e a acu\u00admu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de reser\u00advas inter\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais. No entan\u00adto,&nbsp;al\u00e9m&nbsp;[\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-2938","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A depend\u00eancia externa das receitas fiscais: qual o efeito do \u00cdndice de Commodities na receita total? &#8212; Made<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/a-dependencia-externa-das-receitas-qual-o-efeito-do-indice-de-commodities-na-receita-total\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/a-dependencia-externa-das-receitas-qual-o-efeito-do-indice-de-commodities-na-receita-total\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/a-dependencia-externa-das-receitas-qual-o-efeito-do-indice-de-commodities-na-receita-total\\\/\",\"name\":\"A depend\u00eancia externa das receitas fiscais: qual o efeito do \u00cdndice de Commodities na receita total? 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