{"id":2822,"date":"2025-06-27T14:05:43","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T17:05:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&#038;p=2822"},"modified":"2026-08-21T15:22:26","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T18:22:26","slug":"o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\/","title":{"rendered":"O aquecimento da economia explica a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os? Uma an\u00e1lise desagregada da Curva de Phillips para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o por grupos do&nbsp;IPCA"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Este estu\u00addo inves\u00adti\u00adga a rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o entre o n\u00edvel de ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca, medi\u00addo pelo hia\u00adto do pro\u00addu\u00adto, e a infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o no Bra\u00adsil, con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adran\u00addo o \u00edndi\u00adce de pre\u00ad\u00e7os ao con\u00adsu\u00admi\u00addor amplo (IPCA) tan\u00adto em sua for\u00adma agre\u00adga\u00adda quan\u00adto desa\u00adgre\u00adga\u00adda por gru\u00adpos de pro\u00addu\u00adtos. Uti\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo mode\u00adlos de M\u00edni\u00admos Qua\u00addra\u00addos em Dois Est\u00e1\u00adgi\u00ados (MQ2E), esti\u00adma-se a res\u00adpos\u00adta da infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 deman\u00adda agre\u00adga\u00adda no per\u00edo\u00addo recen\u00adte, com o obje\u00adti\u00advo de ava\u00adli\u00adar a efe\u00adti\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde da pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria via canal de deman\u00adda. Os resul\u00adta\u00addos indi\u00adcam que a sen\u00adsi\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde do \u00edndi\u00adce geral de pre\u00ad\u00e7os a vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es na deman\u00adda agre\u00adga\u00adda n\u00e3o \u00e9 esta\u00adtis\u00adti\u00adca\u00admen\u00adte sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00adva mes\u00admo a 10%. Quan\u00addo os dados s\u00e3o ana\u00adli\u00adsa\u00addos de for\u00adma desa\u00adgre\u00adga\u00adda, ape\u00adnas os gru\u00adpos de \u2018ves\u00adtu\u00e1\u00adrio\u2019 e \u2018des\u00adpe\u00adsas pes\u00adso\u00adais\u2019 apre\u00adsen\u00adtam res\u00adpos\u00adta esta\u00adtis\u00adti\u00adca\u00admen\u00adte sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00adva \u00e0 deman\u00adda agre\u00adga\u00adda, enquan\u00adto os demais gru\u00adpos n\u00e3o reve\u00adlam rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00adva. Esses resul\u00adta\u00addos suge\u00adrem que o pro\u00adces\u00adso infla\u00adci\u00ado\u00adn\u00e1\u00adrio bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adro, para gran\u00adde par\u00adte dos seg\u00admen\u00adtos, \u00e9 menos sen\u00ads\u00ed\u00advel ao ciclo econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco do que se cos\u00adtu\u00adma con\u00adce\u00adber. Decor\u00adre dis\u00adso a neces\u00adsi\u00adda\u00adde de con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adrar fato\u00adres como cho\u00adques de ofer\u00adta, pre\u00ad\u00e7os admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00addos e rigi\u00addez con\u00adtra\u00adtu\u00adal para a din\u00e2\u00admi\u00adca dos pre\u00ad\u00e7os no pa\u00eds. As impli\u00adca\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es para a pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria s\u00e3o rele\u00advan\u00adtes, indi\u00adcan\u00addo que a uti\u00adli\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa Selic como fer\u00adra\u00admen\u00adta de con\u00adtro\u00adle infla\u00adci\u00ado\u00adn\u00e1\u00adrio pode apre\u00adsen\u00adtar limi\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es subs\u00adtan\u00adti\u00advas devi\u00addo \u00e0 bai\u00adxa sen\u00adsi\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde dos pre\u00ad\u00e7os a vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es na deman\u00adda agregada.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Este estu\u00addo inves\u00adti\u00adga a rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o entre o n\u00edvel de ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca, medi\u00addo pelo hia\u00adto do pro\u00addu\u00adto, e a infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o no Bra\u00adsil, con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adran\u00addo o \u00edndi\u00adce de pre\u00ad\u00e7os ao con\u00adsu\u00admi\u00addor amplo (IPCA) tan\u00adto em sua for\u00adma agre\u00adga\u00adda quan\u00adto desa\u00adgre\u00adga\u00adda por gru\u00adpos de pro\u00addu\u00adtos. Uti\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo mode\u00adlos de M\u00edni\u00admos Qua\u00addra\u00addos em Dois Est\u00e1\u00adgi\u00ados (MQ2E), esti\u00ad\u00adma-se a res\u00adpos\u00adta da infla\u00e7\u00e3o&nbsp;[\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-2822","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>O aquecimento da economia explica a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os? Uma an\u00e1lise desagregada da Curva de Phillips para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o por grupos do IPCA &#8212; Made<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\\\/\",\"name\":\"O aquecimento da economia explica a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os? Uma an\u00e1lise desagregada da Curva de Phillips para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o por grupos do IPCA &#8212; Made\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-27T17:05:43+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-08-21T18:22:26+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publicacoes\\\/artigos\\\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"In\u00edcio\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Publica\u00e7\u00f5es\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/articles\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"O aquecimento da economia explica a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os? Uma an\u00e1lise desagregada da Curva de Phillips para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o por grupos do IPCA\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"Made\",\"description\":\"Research Center on Macroeconomics of Inequalities\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Made\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/10\\\/fav-ico-made-01.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/10\\\/fav-ico-made-01.png\",\"width\":4500,\"height\":4500,\"caption\":\"Made\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"O aquecimento da economia explica a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os? Uma an\u00e1lise desagregada da Curva de Phillips para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o por grupos do IPCA &#8212; Made","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\/","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\/","url":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\/","name":"O aquecimento da economia explica a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os? Uma an\u00e1lise desagregada da Curva de Phillips para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o por grupos do IPCA &#8212; Made","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-06-27T17:05:43+00:00","dateModified":"2026-08-21T18:22:26+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/o-aquecimento-da-economia-explica-a-elevacao-dos-precos-uma-analise-desagregada-da-curva-de-phillips-para-a-inflacao-por-grupos-do-ipca\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"In\u00edcio","item":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Publica\u00e7\u00f5es","item":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"O aquecimento da economia explica a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os? Uma an\u00e1lise desagregada da Curva de Phillips para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o por grupos do IPCA"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/","name":"Made","description":"Research Center on Macroeconomics of Inequalities","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#organization","name":"Made","url":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/fav-ico-made-01.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/fav-ico-made-01.png","width":4500,"height":4500,"caption":"Made"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/made_publication\/2822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/made_publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/made_publication"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2822"},{"taxonomy":"made_publication_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/made_publication_type?post=2822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}