{"id":2638,"date":"2025-02-06T14:44:18","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T17:44:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&p=2638"},"modified":"2026-08-14T15:57:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T18:57:16","slug":"conditional-cash-transfers-versus-universal-basic-income-programs-a-comparative-economic-analysis-using-a-social-accounting-matrix-for-brazil","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/conditional-cash-transfers-versus-universal-basic-income-programs-a-comparative-economic-analysis-using-a-social-accounting-matrix-for-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"Conditional Cash Transfers Versus Universal Basic Income Programs: a Comparative Economic Analysis Using a Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"

Este arti\u00adgo exa\u00admi\u00adna os efei\u00adtos macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos dos gas\u00adtos com pro\u00adte\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o soci\u00adal, um tema fre\u00adquen\u00adte\u00admen\u00adte negli\u00adgen\u00adci\u00ada\u00addo na lite\u00adra\u00adtu\u00adra sobre mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres de gas\u00adtos p\u00fabli\u00adcos. Uti\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo uma Matriz de Con\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde Soci\u00adal (MCS) para o Bra\u00adsil, o estu\u00addo ava\u00adlia os impac\u00adtos de dois pro\u00adgra\u00admas de trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia de ren\u00adda \u2013 Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia (foca\u00adli\u00adza\u00addo) e Ren\u00adda B\u00e1si\u00adca Uni\u00adver\u00adsal \u2013 sobre o PIB e a dis\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de ren\u00adda. O estu\u00addo abor\u00adda como o dese\u00adnho e os meca\u00adnis\u00admos de finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto des\u00adses pro\u00adgra\u00admas influ\u00aden\u00adci\u00adam os resul\u00adta\u00addos macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos, par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlar\u00admen\u00adte seus efei\u00adtos sobre o PIB e sobre a dis\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de ren\u00adda. Nos\u00adsa abor\u00adda\u00adgem empre\u00adga simu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es base\u00ada\u00addas em MCS para explo\u00adrar essas rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es. Em par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlar, o estu\u00addo reve\u00adla que ambos os pro\u00adgra\u00admas pos\u00adsu\u00adem efei\u00adtos posi\u00adti\u00advos seme\u00adlhan\u00adtes sobre o PIB. No entan\u00adto, o Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia per\u00admi\u00adte que os gru\u00adpos de bai\u00adxa ren\u00adda cap\u00adtu\u00adrem uma par\u00adce\u00adla mai\u00ador das trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adci\u00adas, ampli\u00adan\u00addo seu impac\u00adto redis\u00adtri\u00adbu\u00adti\u00advo. \u00c9 impor\u00adtan\u00adte des\u00adta\u00adcar que mos\u00adtra\u00admos que o meca\u00adnis\u00admo de finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto exer\u00adce uma influ\u00ean\u00adcia mai\u00ador sobre os resul\u00adta\u00addos macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos do que o dese\u00adnho do pro\u00adgra\u00adma. O finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto por meio de impos\u00adtos pro\u00adgres\u00adsi\u00advos gera efei\u00adtos posi\u00adti\u00advos no PIB para ambos os pro\u00adgra\u00admas, enquan\u00adto o finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto via cor\u00adtes nos gas\u00adtos p\u00fabli\u00adcos resul\u00adta em impac\u00adtos l\u00edqui\u00addos nega\u00adti\u00advos. Esses resul\u00adta\u00addos des\u00adta\u00adcam a neces\u00adsi\u00adda\u00adde de ali\u00adnhar estra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgi\u00adas de finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto com pro\u00adgra\u00admas de trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia de ren\u00adda para pro\u00admo\u00adver tan\u00adto o cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto quan\u00adto a equi\u00adda\u00adde. Mais ampla\u00admen\u00adte, eles mos\u00adtram que pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas soci\u00adais bem finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00addas podem ser fer\u00adra\u00admen\u00adtas pode\u00adro\u00adsas para o desen\u00advol\u00advi\u00admen\u00adto inclusivo.<\/p>\n

Pala\u00advras-cha\u00adve: <\/b>matriz de con\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde soci\u00adal, mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addor fis\u00adcal, Pro\u00adgra\u00adma Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia, ren\u00adda b\u00e1si\u00adca uni\u00adver\u00adsal, dis\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de renda.<\/p>\n

JEL: <\/b>E16, E62, H20, H53<\/p>\n

This paper exa\u00admi\u00adnes the macro\u00ade\u00adco\u00adno\u00admic effects of soci\u00adal pro\u00adtec\u00adti\u00adon expen\u00addi\u00adtu\u00adres, a topic often over\u00adlo\u00ado\u00adked in the govern\u00adment spen\u00adding mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00ader lite\u00adra\u00adtu\u00adre. Using a Soci\u00adal Accoun\u00adting Matrix (SAM) for Bra\u00adzil, the study eva\u00adlu\u00ada\u00adtes the impacts of two inco\u00adme trans\u00adfer pro\u00adgrams \u2013 Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia <\/i>(tar\u00adge\u00adted) and Uni\u00adver\u00adsal Basic Inco\u00adme (UBI) \u2013 on GDP and inco\u00adme dis\u00adtri\u00adbu\u00adti\u00adon. The study addres\u00adses how the design and fun\u00adding mecha\u00adnisms of the\u00adse pro\u00adgrams influ\u00aden\u00adce macro\u00ade\u00adco\u00adno\u00admic out\u00adco\u00admes, par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlarly their effects on GDP and inco\u00adme dis\u00adtri\u00adbu\u00adti\u00adon. Our appro\u00ada\u00adch employs SAM-based simu\u00adla\u00adti\u00adons to explo\u00adre the\u00adse rela\u00adti\u00adonships. In par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlar, our study finds that both pro\u00adgrams have simi\u00adlar posi\u00adti\u00adve effects on GDP. Howe\u00adver, Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia<\/i> ena\u00adbles lower-inco\u00adme groups to cap\u00adtu\u00adre a lar\u00adger sha\u00adre of trans\u00adfers, enhan\u00adcing its redis\u00adtri\u00adbu\u00adti\u00adve impact. Impor\u00adtan\u00adtly, we show that the fun\u00adding mecha\u00adnism has a gre\u00ada\u00adter influ\u00aden\u00adce on macro\u00ade\u00adco\u00adno\u00admic out\u00adco\u00admes than pro\u00adgram design. Finan\u00adcing through pro\u00adgres\u00adsi\u00adve taxes gene\u00adra\u00adtes posi\u00adti\u00adve effects on GDP for both pro\u00adgrams, whe\u00adre\u00adas fun\u00adding via public spen\u00adding cuts leads to nega\u00adti\u00adve net impacts. The\u00adse fin\u00addings empha\u00adsi\u00adze the need to align fun\u00adding stra\u00adte\u00adgi\u00ades with inco\u00adme trans\u00adfer pro\u00adgrams to pro\u00admo\u00adte both growth and equity. More bro\u00ada\u00addly, they show that well-finan\u00adced soci\u00adal poli\u00adci\u00ades can be power\u00adful tools for inclu\u00adsi\u00adve development.<\/p>\n

Keywords: <\/b>soci\u00adal accoun\u00adting matrix, fis\u00adcal mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00ader, Bol\u00adsa Fami\u00adlia Pro\u00adgram, uni\u00adver\u00adsal basic inco\u00adme, inco\u00adme distribution.<\/p>\n

JEL: <\/b>E16, E62, H20, H53<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Este arti\u00adgo exa\u00admi\u00adna os efei\u00adtos macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos dos gas\u00adtos com pro\u00adte\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o soci\u00adal, um tema fre\u00adquen\u00adte\u00admen\u00adte negli\u00adgen\u00adci\u00ada\u00addo na lite\u00adra\u00adtu\u00adra sobre mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres de gas\u00adtos p\u00fabli\u00adcos. Uti\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo uma Matriz de Con\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde Soci\u00adal (MCS) para o Bra\u00adsil, o estu\u00addo ava\u00adlia os impac\u00adtos de dois pro\u00adgra\u00admas de trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia de ren\u00adda \u2013 Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia (foca\u00adli\u00adza\u00addo) e Ren\u00adda B\u00e1si\u00adca Uni\u00adver\u00adsal \u2013 sobre o [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[78],"class_list":["post-2638","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-working-papers"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nConditional Cash Transfers Versus Universal Basic Income Programs: a Comparative Economic Analysis Using a Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil — Made<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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