{"id":2633,"date":"2025-02-06T14:40:22","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T17:40:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&p=2633"},"modified":"2026-08-21T15:49:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T18:49:43","slug":"transferencias-condicionadas-de-renda-versus-programas-de-renda-basica-universal-uma-analise-economica-comparativa-usando-uma-matriz-de-contabilidade-social-para-o-brasil","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publicacoes\/artigos\/transferencias-condicionadas-de-renda-versus-programas-de-renda-basica-universal-uma-analise-economica-comparativa-usando-uma-matriz-de-contabilidade-social-para-o-brasil\/","title":{"rendered":"Transfer\u00eancias condicionadas de renda versus programas de renda b\u00e1sica universal: uma an\u00e1lise econ\u00f4mica comparativa usando uma Matriz de Contabilidade Social para o Brasil"},"content":{"rendered":"

Esta Nota ana\u00adli\u00adsa os efei\u00adtos macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos de dois pro\u00adgra\u00admas de trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia de ren\u00adda \u2013 Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia (um pro\u00adgra\u00adma foca\u00adli\u00adza\u00addo) e um pro\u00adgra\u00adma de Ren\u00adda B\u00e1si\u00adca Uni\u00adver\u00adsal. Uti\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo uma Matriz de Con\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde Soci\u00adal (MCS) para o Bra\u00adsil, ava\u00adli\u00ada\u00admos os impac\u00adtos sobre o PIB e a dis\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de ren\u00adda para cada pro\u00adgra\u00adma, con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adran\u00addo os efei\u00adtos de dife\u00adren\u00adtes meca\u00adnis\u00admos de finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto para essas pol\u00edticas.<\/b><\/p>\n

Em par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlar, simu\u00adla\u00admos qua\u00adtro cen\u00e1\u00adri\u00ados: (i) uma trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia de ren\u00adda des\u00adti\u00adna\u00adda ao res\u00adpec\u00adti\u00advo pro\u00adgra\u00adma, sem medi\u00addas de finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto com\u00adpen\u00adsa\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrio; (ii) uma trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia acom\u00adpa\u00adnha\u00adda por uma redu\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o pro\u00adpor\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnal nos gas\u00adtos p\u00fabli\u00adcos; (iii) uma trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00adda por tri\u00adbu\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o pro\u00adpor\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnal sobre a ren\u00adda do 1% mais rico da popu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o; e (iv) uma trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00adda por tri\u00adbu\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o pro\u00adpor\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnal sobre lucros e dividendos.<\/b><\/p>\n

Nos\u00adsas simu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es mos\u00adtram que ambos os pro\u00adgra\u00admas t\u00eam efei\u00adtos posi\u00adti\u00advos seme\u00adlhan\u00adtes no PIB. Con\u00adtu\u00addo, o Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia per\u00admi\u00adte que os gru\u00adpos de menor ren\u00adda cap\u00adtu\u00adrem uma par\u00adce\u00adla mai\u00ador das trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adci\u00adas, ampli\u00adan\u00addo seu impac\u00adto redistributivo. <\/b><\/p>\n

Nos\u00adso prin\u00adci\u00adpal resul\u00adta\u00addo \u00e9 que o meca\u00adnis\u00admo de finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto de tais pro\u00adgra\u00admas exer\u00adce mai\u00ador influ\u00ean\u00adcia nos resul\u00adta\u00addos macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos do que o seu dese\u00adnho. O finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto por impos\u00adtos pro\u00adgres\u00adsi\u00advos (por exem\u00adplo, uma mai\u00ador tri\u00adbu\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o sobre o 1% mais rico da popu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o, ou sobre lucros e divi\u00adden\u00addos) gera efei\u00adtos posi\u00adti\u00advos no PIB para ambos os pro\u00adgra\u00admas, enquan\u00adto o finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto por cor\u00adtes em outros gas\u00adtos p\u00fabli\u00adcos resul\u00adta em impac\u00adtos l\u00edqui\u00addos negativos.<\/b><\/p>\n

Esses resul\u00adta\u00addos res\u00adsal\u00adtam a impor\u00adt\u00e2n\u00adcia de ali\u00adnhar estra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgi\u00adas de finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto aos pro\u00adgra\u00admas de trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia de ren\u00adda para pro\u00admo\u00adver cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto e equi\u00adda\u00adde. De for\u00adma mais ampla, demons\u00adtram que pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas soci\u00adais finan\u00adci\u00ada\u00addas por tri\u00adbu\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o pro\u00adgres\u00adsi\u00adva podem ser fer\u00adra\u00admen\u00adtas pode\u00adro\u00adsas para um desen\u00advol\u00advi\u00admen\u00adto inclusivo.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Esta Nota ana\u00adli\u00adsa os efei\u00adtos macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos de dois pro\u00adgra\u00admas de trans\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcia de ren\u00adda \u2013 Bol\u00adsa Fam\u00ed\u00adlia (um pro\u00adgra\u00adma foca\u00adli\u00adza\u00addo) e um pro\u00adgra\u00adma de Ren\u00adda B\u00e1si\u00adca Uni\u00adver\u00adsal. Uti\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo uma Matriz de Con\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde Soci\u00adal (MCS) para o Bra\u00adsil, ava\u00adli\u00ada\u00admos os impac\u00adtos sobre o PIB e a dis\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de ren\u00adda para cada pro\u00adgra\u00adma, con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adran\u00addo os efei\u00adtos de diferentes [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-2633","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTransfer\u00eancias condicionadas de renda versus programas de renda b\u00e1sica universal: uma an\u00e1lise econ\u00f4mica comparativa usando uma Matriz de Contabilidade Social para o Brasil — Made<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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