O Regi\u00adme de Metas de Infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do Bra\u00adsil visa a esta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde dos pre\u00ad\u00e7os, ajus\u00adtan\u00addo a taxa de infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ao cen\u00adtro da meta ofi\u00adci\u00adal. O prin\u00adci\u00adpal canal de trans\u00admis\u00ads\u00e3o da pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria supos\u00adto nes\u00adse regi\u00adme \u00e9 o con\u00adtro\u00adle da deman\u00adda agre\u00adga\u00adda. Quan\u00addo a infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 aci\u00adma da meta, o Ban\u00adco Cen\u00adtral ele\u00adva a taxa Selic, redu\u00adzin\u00addo o con\u00adsu\u00admo e o inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adto, o que aumen\u00adta o desem\u00adpre\u00adgo e, com isso, dimi\u00adnui a pres\u00ads\u00e3o infla\u00adci\u00ado\u00adn\u00e1\u00adria. \u00c9 cru\u00adci\u00adal que o Ban\u00adco Cen\u00adtral, por\u00adtan\u00adto, ado\u00adte uma estra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgia ante\u00adci\u00adpa\u00adda para mini\u00admi\u00adzar o cus\u00adto soci\u00adal da pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca monet\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n
A taxa de infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o no Bra\u00adsil \u00e9 medi\u00adda pelo \u00cdndi\u00adce Naci\u00ado\u00adnal de Pre\u00ad\u00e7os ao Con\u00adsu\u00admi\u00addor Amplo (IPCA). O IPCA agre\u00adga\u00addo \u00e9 com\u00adpos\u00adto pelas taxas de infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de nove gru\u00adpos da ces\u00adta de con\u00adsu\u00admo, que, por sua vez, s\u00e3o sub\u00addi\u00advi\u00addi\u00addos em sub\u00adgru\u00adpos, itens e subi\u00adtens. Sen\u00addo assim, \u00e9 plau\u00ads\u00ed\u00advel supor que os pre\u00ad\u00e7os e quan\u00adti\u00adda\u00addes ven\u00addi\u00addas de cada pro\u00addu\u00adto que com\u00adp\u00f5e o IPCA res\u00adpon\u00addam igual\u00admen\u00adte, em ter\u00admos de dire\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o e mag\u00adni\u00adtu\u00adde, \u00e0s vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es na Selic? Nos\u00adsos resul\u00adta\u00addos suge\u00adrem que n\u00e3o.<\/p>\n
Esta nota sin\u00adte\u00adti\u00adza os resul\u00adta\u00addos deta\u00adlha\u00addos na ver\u00ads\u00e3o em tex\u00adto para dis\u00adcus\u00ads\u00e3o de um novo estu\u00addo de pes\u00adqui\u00adsa\u00addo\u00adres do Made\/USP que bus\u00adca res\u00adpon\u00adder a essa ques\u00adt\u00e3o ao ava\u00adli\u00adar empi\u00adri\u00adca\u00admen\u00adte a efi\u00adc\u00e1\u00adcia da pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adra em rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ao con\u00adtro\u00adle da infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o, com foco espe\u00adc\u00ed\u00adfi\u00adco nos efei\u00adtos poten\u00adci\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte dife\u00adren\u00adci\u00ada\u00addos da taxa Selic sobre os diver\u00adsos gru\u00adpos que com\u00adp\u00f5em o IPCA.<\/p>\n
Uti\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo os dados desa\u00adgre\u00adga\u00addos do IPCA cole\u00adta\u00addos entre 2007 e 2023, a pes\u00adqui\u00adsa reve\u00adla que o impac\u00adto da pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria n\u00e3o \u00e9 homo\u00adg\u00ea\u00adneo. Seto\u00adres como \u2018Ali\u00admen\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o e bebi\u00addas\u2019 e \u2018Ves\u00adtu\u00e1\u00adrio\u2019 demons\u00adtram alta sen\u00adsi\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde \u00e0s mudan\u00ad\u00e7as na Selic, apre\u00adsen\u00adtan\u00addo redu\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00advas na infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o quan\u00addo a taxa de juros \u00e9 ele\u00adva\u00adda. Em con\u00adtra\u00adpar\u00adti\u00adda, outros seto\u00adres, como \u2018Habi\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019 e \u2018Comu\u00adni\u00adca\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019, mos\u00adtram pou\u00adca ou nenhu\u00adma res\u00adpos\u00adta \u00e0s vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es na taxa b\u00e1si\u00adca de juros, suge\u00adrin\u00addo que a pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria tem efei\u00adtos limi\u00adta\u00addos nes\u00adsas \u00e1reas.<\/p>\n
Se a res\u00adpos\u00adta dos dife\u00adren\u00adtes gru\u00adpos \u00e0s vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es na Selic for dis\u00adtin\u00adta, como a an\u00e1\u00adli\u00adse suge\u00adre, a pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria pode ter efei\u00adtos vari\u00ada\u00addos em ter\u00admos de dire\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o e mag\u00adni\u00adtu\u00adde sobre a infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o agre\u00adga\u00adda a depen\u00adder, em gran\u00adde par\u00adte, de quais gru\u00adpos da ces\u00adta de con\u00adsu\u00admo domi\u00adnam a din\u00e2\u00admi\u00adca dos pre\u00ad\u00e7os em cada momen\u00adto. Esses acha\u00addos t\u00eam impli\u00adca\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00advas para a for\u00admu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o e exe\u00adcu\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcas no Bra\u00adsil, espe\u00adci\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte no que tan\u00adge \u00e0 pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria. Com\u00adpre\u00aden\u00adder as vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es nas res\u00adpos\u00adtas das taxas de infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o dos dife\u00adren\u00adtes gru\u00adpos da ces\u00adta de con\u00adsu\u00admo em rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s mudan\u00ad\u00e7as na Selic \u00e9 cru\u00adci\u00adal para uma ava\u00adli\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o mais ade\u00adqua\u00adda da efi\u00adc\u00e1\u00adcia da pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria ao dis\u00adcu\u00adtir como \u00e9 pos\u00ads\u00ed\u00advel ali\u00adar um mai\u00ador con\u00adtro\u00adle da infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o com um menor cus\u00adto soci\u00adal em ter\u00admos de per\u00adda de empre\u00adgos e renda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
O Regi\u00adme de Metas de Infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do Bra\u00adsil visa a esta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde dos pre\u00ad\u00e7os, ajus\u00adtan\u00addo a taxa de infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ao cen\u00adtro da meta ofi\u00adci\u00adal. O prin\u00adci\u00adpal canal de trans\u00admis\u00ads\u00e3o da pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca mone\u00adt\u00e1\u00adria supos\u00adto nes\u00adse regi\u00adme \u00e9 o con\u00adtro\u00adle da deman\u00adda agre\u00adga\u00adda. Quan\u00addo a infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 aci\u00adma da meta, o Ban\u00adco Cen\u00adtral ele\u00adva a taxa Selic, reduzindo [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-2418","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n