{"id":2412,"date":"2024-08-05T16:00:39","date_gmt":"2024-08-05T19:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&p=2412"},"modified":"2024-11-01T19:21:12","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T22:21:12","slug":"ajuste-via-receita-ou-via-gasto-cenarios-de-ajuste-fiscal-considerando-estimativas-de-efeitos-multiplicadores","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/ajuste-via-receita-ou-via-gasto-cenarios-de-ajuste-fiscal-considerando-estimativas-de-efeitos-multiplicadores\/","title":{"rendered":"Ajuste via receita ou via gasto? Cen\u00e1rios de ajuste fiscal considerando estimativas de efeitos multiplicadores"},"content":{"rendered":"

Essa Nota atu\u00ada\u00adli\u00adza as esti\u00adma\u00adti\u00advas de mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres fis\u00adcais de dife\u00adren\u00adtes com\u00adpo\u00adnen\u00adtes do gas\u00adto e da recei\u00adta no Bra\u00adsil apre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addas em San\u00adches e Car\u00adva\u00adlho (2022) e uti\u00adli\u00adza os resul\u00adta\u00addos para simu\u00adlar o efei\u00adto de dife\u00adren\u00adtes pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas de ajus\u00adte fis\u00adcal. Para a rea\u00adli\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de esti\u00adma\u00adti\u00advas mais pre\u00adci\u00adsas dos mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres, ajus\u00adta\u00admos os dados de gas\u00adtos e recei\u00adtas do gover\u00adno fede\u00adral seguin\u00addo meto\u00addo\u00adlo\u00adgia de Gobet\u00adti e Orair (2017), assim como em San\u00adches e Car\u00adva\u00adlho (2022). Os mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres s\u00e3o esti\u00adma\u00addos com dados de 1997 a 2023, com exclu\u00ads\u00e3o de 2020 e 2021, anos at\u00ed\u00adpi\u00adcos devi\u00addo \u00e0 pan\u00adde\u00admia de Covid-19, e uti\u00adli\u00adzan\u00addo-se a meto\u00addo\u00adlo\u00adgia de mode\u00adlo veto\u00adri\u00adal autor\u00adre\u00adgres\u00adsi\u00advo estru\u00adtu\u00adral (SVAR).<\/p>\n

Os resul\u00adta\u00addos indi\u00adcam que o impac\u00adto ime\u00addi\u00ada\u00adto sobre o PIB \u00e9 posi\u00adti\u00advo para um aumen\u00adto dos gas\u00adtos, sobre\u00adtu\u00addo inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adto p\u00fabli\u00adco e bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adci\u00ados soci\u00adais, e nega\u00adti\u00advo para o aumen\u00adto da recei\u00adta via ele\u00adva\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de impos\u00adtos. A um pra\u00adzo mais lon\u00adgo, con\u00adtu\u00addo, o efei\u00adto nega\u00adti\u00advo do aumen\u00adto da recei\u00adta se tor\u00adna n\u00e3o sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adcan\u00adte, enquan\u00adto os efei\u00adtos posi\u00adti\u00advos do inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adto p\u00fabli\u00adco e dos bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adci\u00ados soci\u00adais per\u00adsis\u00adtem: para cada real gas\u00adto com inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adto e bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adcio soci\u00adal, o PIB ten\u00adde a aumen\u00adtar R$ 2,6 e R$ 2,15, res\u00adpec\u00adti\u00adva\u00admen\u00adte, ap\u00f3s 25 meses.<\/p>\n

Do pon\u00adto de vis\u00adta tan\u00adto de cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco quan\u00adto de um poten\u00adci\u00adal con\u00adtro\u00adle do endi\u00advi\u00adda\u00admen\u00adto p\u00fabli\u00adco, a melhor pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca \u00e9 a com\u00adbi\u00adna\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de aumen\u00adto de recei\u00adtas e de gas\u00adtos com inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adto p\u00fabli\u00adco ou bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adci\u00ados soci\u00adais. As medi\u00addas que geram o mai\u00ador cus\u00adto em ter\u00admos de impac\u00adto no PIB e poten\u00adci\u00adal ele\u00adva\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da raz\u00e3o d\u00edvi\u00adda-PIB, por sua vez, est\u00e3o asso\u00adci\u00ada\u00addas ao ajus\u00adte via cor\u00adte jus\u00adta\u00admen\u00adte de inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adto e bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adci\u00ados soci\u00adais. Nos\u00adsos resul\u00adta\u00addos tam\u00adb\u00e9m demons\u00adtram como o cor\u00adte de sub\u00ads\u00ed\u00addi\u00ados \u00e9, de fato, a melhor pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adca do lado dos gastos.<\/p>\n

Nos\u00adsas simu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es indi\u00adcam tam\u00adb\u00e9m que um con\u00adtin\u00adgen\u00adci\u00ada\u00admen\u00adto or\u00e7a\u00admen\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrio de cer\u00adca de 0,32%, pos\u00adsi\u00advel\u00admen\u00adte neces\u00ads\u00e1\u00adrio para o cum\u00adpri\u00admen\u00adto da meta fis\u00adcal de 2024, pode gerar, em um per\u00edo\u00addo de um ano, um efei\u00adto nega\u00adti\u00advo sobre o PIB de 0,78% se o cor\u00adte for sobre inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adtos, 0,58% se for sobre bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adci\u00ados soci\u00adais, e pra\u00adti\u00adca\u00admen\u00adte nulo se fos\u00adse sobre subs\u00eddios.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Essa Nota atu\u00ada\u00adli\u00adza as esti\u00adma\u00adti\u00advas de mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres fis\u00adcais de dife\u00adren\u00adtes com\u00adpo\u00adnen\u00adtes do gas\u00adto e da recei\u00adta no Bra\u00adsil apre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addas em San\u00adches e Car\u00adva\u00adlho (2022) e uti\u00adli\u00adza os resul\u00adta\u00addos para simu\u00adlar o efei\u00adto de dife\u00adren\u00adtes pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas de ajus\u00adte fis\u00adcal. Para a rea\u00adli\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de esti\u00adma\u00adti\u00advas mais pre\u00adci\u00adsas dos mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres, ajus\u00adta\u00admos os dados de gas\u00adtos e recei\u00adtas do [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-2412","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAjuste via receita ou via gasto? 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