{"id":2393,"date":"2023-04-03T15:51:48","date_gmt":"2023-04-03T18:51:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&#038;p=2393"},"modified":"2024-11-01T19:28:33","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T22:28:33","slug":"quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\/","title":{"rendered":"Quais os efeitos do novo arcabou\u00e7o fiscal sobre a trajet\u00f3ria de gastos p\u00fablicos? Uma an\u00e1lise preliminar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">A pre\u00adsen\u00adte nota ofe\u00adre\u00adce uma dis\u00adcus\u00ads\u00e3o pre\u00adli\u00admi\u00adnar dos efei\u00adtos que o Novo Arca\u00adbou\u00ad\u00e7o Fis\u00adcal (NAF), divul\u00adga\u00addo pelo Gover\u00adno Lula em 30 de mar\u00ad\u00e7o de 2023, pode pro\u00addu\u00adzir sobre a tra\u00adje\u00adt\u00f3\u00adria das des\u00adpe\u00adsas p\u00fabli\u00adcas bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adras. S\u00e3o apre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addos con\u00adtra\u00adfac\u00adtu\u00adais que pro\u00adcu\u00adram ava\u00adli\u00adar que efei\u00adtos a ado\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do NAF teria pro\u00addu\u00adzi\u00addo des\u00adde 2001, em dife\u00adren\u00adtes cen\u00e1\u00adri\u00ados. Al\u00e9m dis\u00adso, s\u00e3o apre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addas algu\u00admas pro\u00adje\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es da tra\u00adje\u00adt\u00f3\u00adria dos gas\u00adtos p\u00fabli\u00adcos para os pr\u00f3\u00adxi\u00admos anos sob vig\u00ean\u00adcia do NAF. As simu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es con\u00adtra\u00adfac\u00adtu\u00adais indi\u00adcam um avan\u00ad\u00e7o em rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ao atu\u00adal Teto de Gas\u00adtos. Des\u00adta\u00adcam, por exem\u00adplo, o poten\u00adci\u00adal anti\u00adc\u00ed\u00adcli\u00adco do NAF, mas mos\u00adtram que as des\u00adpe\u00adsas seri\u00adam redu\u00adzi\u00addas como pro\u00adpor\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB em com\u00adpa\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o com a s\u00e9rie his\u00adt\u00f3\u00adri\u00adca ori\u00adgi\u00adnal. Ade\u00admais, apon\u00adtam para uma mudan\u00ad\u00e7a de com\u00adpo\u00adsi\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o das des\u00adpe\u00adsas, favo\u00adre\u00adcen\u00addo os inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adtos p\u00fabli\u00adcos em rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s des\u00adpe\u00adsas cor\u00adren\u00adtes. Pro\u00adje\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es para 2030 tam\u00adb\u00e9m suge\u00adrem a que\u00adda das des\u00adpe\u00adsas como pro\u00adpor\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB em cen\u00e1\u00adri\u00ados oti\u00admis\u00adta e pes\u00adsi\u00admis\u00adta de cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco, o que pode pre\u00adju\u00addi\u00adcar a atu\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do Esta\u00addo em \u00e1re\u00adas como sa\u00fa\u00adde, edu\u00adca\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o e pro\u00adte\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o soci\u00adal. Entre\u00adtan\u00adto, medi\u00addas capa\u00adzes de gerar aumen\u00adto da arre\u00adca\u00adda\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o podem com\u00adpen\u00adsar esse efei\u00adto, per\u00admi\u00adtin\u00addo recu\u00adpe\u00adrar o inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adto p\u00fabli\u00adco e esta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adzar a raz\u00e3o entre gas\u00adto e PIB nos pr\u00f3\u00adxi\u00admos anos. No caso do atu\u00adal Teto de gas\u00adtos, um aumen\u00adto de recei\u00adtas ape\u00adnas se con\u00adver\u00adte\u00adria em mai\u00ador resul\u00adta\u00addo pri\u00adm\u00e1\u00adrio, sem abrir qual\u00adquer espa\u00ad\u00e7o para a recu\u00adpe\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de investimentos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A pre\u00adsen\u00adte nota ofe\u00adre\u00adce uma dis\u00adcus\u00ads\u00e3o pre\u00adli\u00admi\u00adnar dos efei\u00adtos que o Novo Arca\u00adbou\u00ad\u00e7o Fis\u00adcal (NAF), divul\u00adga\u00addo pelo Gover\u00adno Lula em 30 de mar\u00ad\u00e7o de 2023, pode pro\u00addu\u00adzir sobre a tra\u00adje\u00adt\u00f3\u00adria das des\u00adpe\u00adsas p\u00fabli\u00adcas bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adras. S\u00e3o apre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addos con\u00adtra\u00adfac\u00adtu\u00adais que pro\u00adcu\u00adram ava\u00adli\u00adar que efei\u00adtos a ado\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do NAF teria pro\u00addu\u00adzi\u00addo des\u00adde 2001, em dife\u00adren\u00adtes cen\u00e1\u00adri\u00ados. Al\u00e9m&nbsp;disso,&nbsp;[\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-2393","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Quais os efeitos do novo arcabou\u00e7o fiscal sobre a trajet\u00f3ria de gastos p\u00fablicos? Uma an\u00e1lise preliminar &#8212; Made<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/articles\\\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/articles\\\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\\\/\",\"name\":\"Quais os efeitos do novo arcabou\u00e7o fiscal sobre a trajet\u00f3ria de gastos p\u00fablicos? Uma an\u00e1lise preliminar &#8212; Made\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-03T18:51:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-01T22:28:33+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/articles\\\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/articles\\\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/articles\\\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"In\u00edcio\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Publica\u00e7\u00f5es\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/publications\\\/articles\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Quais os efeitos do novo arcabou\u00e7o fiscal sobre a trajet\u00f3ria de gastos p\u00fablicos? Uma an\u00e1lise preliminar\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"Made\",\"description\":\"Research Center on Macroeconomics of Inequalities\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Made\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/10\\\/fav-ico-made-01.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/10\\\/fav-ico-made-01.png\",\"width\":4500,\"height\":4500,\"caption\":\"Made\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/madeusp.com.br\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Quais os efeitos do novo arcabou\u00e7o fiscal sobre a trajet\u00f3ria de gastos p\u00fablicos? Uma an\u00e1lise preliminar &#8212; Made","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\/","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\/","url":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\/","name":"Quais os efeitos do novo arcabou\u00e7o fiscal sobre a trajet\u00f3ria de gastos p\u00fablicos? Uma an\u00e1lise preliminar &#8212; Made","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-04-03T18:51:48+00:00","dateModified":"2024-11-01T22:28:33+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quais-os-efeitos-do-novo-arcabouco-fiscal-sobre-a-trajetoria-de-gastos-publicos-uma-analise-preliminar\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"In\u00edcio","item":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Publica\u00e7\u00f5es","item":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Quais os efeitos do novo arcabou\u00e7o fiscal sobre a trajet\u00f3ria de gastos p\u00fablicos? Uma an\u00e1lise preliminar"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/","name":"Made","description":"Research Center on Macroeconomics of Inequalities","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#organization","name":"Made","url":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/fav-ico-made-01.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/fav-ico-made-01.png","width":4500,"height":4500,"caption":"Made"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/made_publication\/2393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/made_publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/made_publication"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2393"},{"taxonomy":"made_publication_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/made_publication_type?post=2393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}