Em feve\u00adrei\u00adro de 2011, a Lei 12.382 esta\u00adbe\u00adle\u00adceu rea\u00adjus\u00adtes anu\u00adais no sal\u00e1\u00adrio m\u00edni\u00admo de acor\u00addo com a infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do ano ante\u00adri\u00ador e a m\u00e9dia do cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto do Pro\u00addu\u00adto Inter\u00adno Bru\u00adto (PIB) dos dois anos ante\u00adri\u00ado\u00adres. Na pr\u00e1\u00adti\u00adca, esta regra j\u00e1 era ado\u00adta\u00adda antes de 2011, mas por meio de medi\u00addas pro\u00advi\u00ads\u00f3\u00adri\u00adas. Em 2020, por\u00e9m, a lei foi alte\u00adra\u00adda e pas\u00adsou a repor ape\u00adnas a infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o. Esta Nota ana\u00adli\u00adsa os efei\u00adtos econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos de cur\u00adto pra\u00adzo de um rea\u00adjus\u00adte do sal\u00e1\u00adrio m\u00edni\u00admo de 3,02% a par\u00adtir de uma Matriz de Con\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adda\u00adde Soci\u00adal (MCS) para o Bra\u00adsil. A valo\u00adri\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o simu\u00adla\u00adda \u00e9 equi\u00adva\u00adlen\u00adte \u00e0 soma das vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es do PIB em 2018 e 2019, repre\u00adsen\u00adtan\u00addo o ganho real do poder de com\u00adpra do sal\u00e1\u00adrio m\u00edni\u00admo caso o rea\u00adjus\u00adte em 2020 e 2021 con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adras\u00adse a regra vigen\u00adte entre 2011 e 2019.<\/p>\n
Quan\u00addo con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adra\u00admos a gera\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de empre\u00adgo, \u00e9 comum a supo\u00adsi\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de que aumen\u00adtos reais acar\u00adre\u00adta\u00adri\u00adam em per\u00adda de pos\u00adtos de tra\u00adba\u00adlho. Con\u00adtu\u00addo, a lite\u00adra\u00adtu\u00adra emp\u00ed\u00adri\u00adca para o Bra\u00adsil tem mos\u00adtra\u00addo que essa rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 medi\u00ada\u00adda pelo con\u00adtex\u00adto econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco. Embo\u00adra aumen\u00adtos do m\u00edni\u00admo tenham acar\u00adre\u00adta\u00addo em per\u00adda de empre\u00adgos para os anos 1980 e 1990, isso n\u00e3o foi ver\u00adda\u00adde nos anos 2000. Os resul\u00adta\u00addos des\u00adta Nota tam\u00adb\u00e9m suge\u00adrem que o impac\u00adto do rea\u00adjus\u00adte sobre a ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca depen\u00adde das res\u00adpos\u00adtas do setor p\u00fabli\u00adco, atra\u00adv\u00e9s de pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas com\u00adpen\u00adsa\u00adt\u00f3\u00adri\u00adas (isto \u00e9, cor\u00adtes de gas\u00adtos ou aumen\u00adto da tri\u00adbu\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o face ao mai\u00ador cus\u00adto resul\u00adtan\u00adte do rea\u00adjus\u00adte), e do setor pri\u00adva\u00addo ao aumen\u00adto do sal\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n
Na aus\u00ean\u00adcia de com\u00adpen\u00adsa\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es, o rea\u00adjus\u00adte repre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00adria uma con\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o final de 0,16% ao PIB com efei\u00adto posi\u00adti\u00advo \u00e0 dis\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de ren\u00adda, vis\u00adto que a meta\u00adde mais pobre da popu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o tem, em m\u00e9dia, a mai\u00ador par\u00adte de seus ren\u00addi\u00admen\u00adtos vin\u00adcu\u00adla\u00adda ao sal\u00e1\u00adrio m\u00edni\u00admo. Adi\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnal\u00admen\u00adte s\u00e3o rea\u00adli\u00adza\u00addas simu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es que con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adram com\u00adpen\u00adsa\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es a esse cus\u00adto, con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adran\u00addo um impac\u00adto esti\u00adma\u00addo de R$ 10,6 bilh\u00f5es (pre\u00ad\u00e7os de 2019) para o setor p\u00fabli\u00adco e de R$ 5,9 bilh\u00f5es para o setor pri\u00adva\u00addo (em ter\u00admos de aumen\u00adto das des\u00adpe\u00adsas com sal\u00e1\u00adri\u00ados e bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adci\u00ados). Em rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ao setor p\u00fabli\u00adco, em par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlar, uma redu\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de des\u00adpe\u00adsas pro\u00adpor\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnal ao aumen\u00adto do gas\u00adto advin\u00addo do rea\u00adjus\u00adte pode levar a um efei\u00adto l\u00edqui\u00addo nega\u00adti\u00advo equi\u00adva\u00adlen\u00adte a 0,01% do PIB. J\u00e1 as solu\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es que afe\u00adtem majo\u00adri\u00adta\u00adri\u00ada\u00admen\u00adte o topo da dis\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o pre\u00adser\u00advam os resul\u00adta\u00addos posi\u00adti\u00advos sobre a ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca (medi\u00addos em ter\u00admos de con\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ao PIB), com mag\u00adni\u00adtu\u00adde entre 0,02 e 0,08% do PIB, a depen\u00adder da res\u00adpos\u00adta do setor pri\u00adva\u00addo vir pelo cor\u00adte de inves\u00adti\u00admen\u00adtos ou lucros, respectivamente.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Em feve\u00adrei\u00adro de 2011, a Lei 12.382 esta\u00adbe\u00adle\u00adceu rea\u00adjus\u00adtes anu\u00adais no sal\u00e1\u00adrio m\u00edni\u00admo de acor\u00addo com a infla\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do ano ante\u00adri\u00ador e a m\u00e9dia do cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto do Pro\u00addu\u00adto Inter\u00adno Bru\u00adto (PIB) dos dois anos ante\u00adri\u00ado\u00adres. Na pr\u00e1\u00adti\u00adca, esta regra j\u00e1 era ado\u00adta\u00adda antes de 2011, mas por meio de medi\u00addas pro\u00advi\u00ads\u00f3\u00adri\u00adas. Em 2020, por\u00e9m, a [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-2386","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n