{"id":2362,"date":"2021-02-08T15:35:45","date_gmt":"2021-02-08T18:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&#038;p=2362"},"modified":"2024-11-01T19:38:13","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T22:38:13","slug":"quao-mais-fundo-poderia-ter-sido-esse-poco-analisando-o-efeito-estabilizador-do-auxilio-emergencial-em-2020","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/quao-mais-fundo-poderia-ter-sido-esse-poco-analisando-o-efeito-estabilizador-do-auxilio-emergencial-em-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Qu\u00e3o mais fundo poderia ter sido esse po\u00e7o? Analisando o efeito estabilizador do Aux\u00edlio Emergencial em&nbsp;2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">At\u00e9 o final de junho do ano pas\u00adsa\u00addo, a menor pro\u00adje\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o das ins\u00adti\u00adtui\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es finan\u00adcei\u00adras con\u00adsul\u00adta\u00addas pelo Ban\u00adco Cen\u00adtral no Bole\u00adtim Focus para a que\u00adda do PIB de 2020 che\u00adgou a ser de 11%. Essa m\u00edni\u00adma pas\u00adsou a ser de 5% no Bole\u00adtim de janei\u00adro des\u00adte ano, com as pro\u00adje\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es para 2020 giran\u00addo em tor\u00adno de 4,3% de que\u00adda do PIB. Esta Nota ana\u00adli\u00adsa um dos fato\u00adres que nos leva\u00adram a ate\u00adnu\u00adar subs\u00adtan\u00adci\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte a pro\u00adfun\u00addi\u00adda\u00adde da reces\u00ads\u00e3o no pri\u00admei\u00adro ano de pan\u00adde\u00admia: o cha\u00adma\u00addo efei\u00adto mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addor do Aux\u00ed\u00adlio Emer\u00adgen\u00adci\u00adal. Nos\u00adsas simu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es indi\u00adcam que, com um gas\u00adto equi\u00adva\u00adlen\u00adte a 4,1% do PIB de 2020, o Aux\u00ed\u00adlio foi res\u00adpon\u00ads\u00e1\u00advel por evi\u00adtar que nos\u00adsa eco\u00adno\u00admia ca\u00eds\u00adse entre 8,4% e 14,8% do ano pas\u00adsa\u00addo. A redu\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o no con\u00adsu\u00admo das fam\u00ed\u00adli\u00adas pode\u00adria ter dimi\u00adnu\u00ed\u00addo entre 11 e 14,7% na aus\u00ean\u00adcia des\u00adse bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adcio, ao inv\u00e9s de sofrer a que\u00adda de 6% pre\u00advis\u00adta atu\u00adal\u00admen\u00adte. Esti\u00adma\u00admos tam\u00adb\u00e9m que o efei\u00adto mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addor do Aux\u00ed\u00adlio ser\u00adviu como esta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adza\u00addor da raz\u00e3o d\u00edvida\/PIB n\u00e3o ape\u00adnas pelo aumen\u00adto no deno\u00admi\u00adna\u00addor, mas tam\u00adb\u00e9m por ate\u00adnu\u00adar a que\u00adda da arre\u00adca\u00adda\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de impos\u00adtos em meio \u00e0 reces\u00ads\u00e3o. Ao ana\u00adli\u00adsar\u00admos o com\u00adpor\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto da D\u00edvi\u00adda L\u00edqui\u00adda do Setor P\u00fabli\u00adco iden\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adca\u00admos que sua rela\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o com o PIB pode\u00adria ter se ele\u00adva\u00addo em 3 pon\u00adtos per\u00adcen\u00adtu\u00adais aci\u00adma do obser\u00adva\u00addo caso o aux\u00ed\u00adlio e seu impac\u00adto mul\u00adti\u00adpli\u00adca\u00addor n\u00e3o tives\u00adsem exis\u00adti\u00addo. Assim, \u00e9 pos\u00ads\u00ed\u00advel con\u00adcluir que, ape\u00adsar da mag\u00adni\u00adtu\u00adde ele\u00adva\u00adda de nos\u00adsos gas\u00adtos no com\u00adba\u00adte \u00e0 pan\u00adde\u00admia em pro\u00adpor\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ao PIB \u2013 entre os vin\u00adte mai\u00ado\u00adres do mun\u00addo, segun\u00addo o FMI \u2013 seus impac\u00adtos macro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admi\u00adcos foram subs\u00adtan\u00adti\u00advos. Des\u00adta for\u00adma, a inter\u00adrup\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o abrup\u00adta do bene\u00adf\u00ed\u00adcio pode n\u00e3o ape\u00adnas ele\u00advar indi\u00adca\u00addo\u00adres de pobre\u00adza e desi\u00adgual\u00adda\u00adde, como tam\u00adb\u00e9m pre\u00adju\u00addi\u00adcar nos\u00adsas pers\u00adpec\u00adti\u00advas de reto\u00adma\u00adda econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca em&nbsp;2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At\u00e9 o final de junho do ano pas\u00adsa\u00addo, a menor pro\u00adje\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o das ins\u00adti\u00adtui\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es finan\u00adcei\u00adras con\u00adsul\u00adta\u00addas pelo Ban\u00adco Cen\u00adtral no Bole\u00adtim Focus para a que\u00adda do PIB de 2020 che\u00adgou a ser de 11%. Essa m\u00edni\u00adma pas\u00adsou a ser de 5% no Bole\u00adtim de janei\u00adro des\u00adte ano, com as pro\u00adje\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es para 2020 giran\u00addo em tor\u00adno&nbsp;de&nbsp;[\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[175],"class_list":["post-2362","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-policy-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Qu\u00e3o mais fundo poderia ter sido esse po\u00e7o? 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