{"id":2336,"date":"2023-05-08T15:08:11","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T18:08:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/?post_type=made_publication&p=2336"},"modified":"2024-11-01T19:30:15","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T22:30:15","slug":"complexidade-economica-e-desmatamento-na-amazonia-brasileira","status":"publish","type":"made_publication","link":"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/complexidade-economica-e-desmatamento-na-amazonia-brasileira\/","title":{"rendered":"Complexidade econ\u00f4mica e desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira"},"content":{"rendered":"

O pre\u00adsen\u00adte arti\u00adgo bus\u00adca ava\u00adlia se o incre\u00admen\u00adto da com\u00adple\u00adxi\u00adda\u00adde econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca pode fomen\u00adtar um pro\u00adces\u00adso de cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto sus\u00adten\u00adt\u00e1\u00advel da Amaz\u00f4\u00adnia bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adra. Para tan\u00adto, o estu\u00addo ava\u00adlia os deter\u00admi\u00adnan\u00adtes da vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o no des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto na Amaz\u00f4\u00adnia Legal em n\u00edvel muni\u00adci\u00adpal no per\u00edo\u00addo entre 2006 e 2021.<\/p>\n

Em par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlar, o arti\u00adgo inves\u00adti\u00adga o efei\u00adto de mudan\u00ad\u00e7as qua\u00adli\u00adta\u00adti\u00advas na estru\u00adtu\u00adra pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00adva dos muni\u00adc\u00ed\u00adpi\u00ados sobre o des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto, con\u00adtro\u00adlan\u00addo para fato\u00adres tipi\u00adca\u00admen\u00adte asso\u00adci\u00ada\u00addos ao des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto, como os pre\u00ad\u00e7os de com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adti\u00ades (car\u00adne, soja e madei\u00adra), pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas gover\u00adna\u00admen\u00adtais rela\u00adti\u00advas \u00e0 \u00e1re\u00adas de assen\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto e pro\u00adte\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o, a\u00e7\u00e3o da pol\u00ed\u00adcia ambi\u00aden\u00adtal (IBAMA), al\u00e9m de vari\u00e1\u00adveis do ciclo pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adco-econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adco que podem afe\u00adtar as deci\u00ads\u00f5es dos agen\u00adtes sobre as esco\u00adlhas de uso da terra.<\/p>\n

Os tes\u00adtes emp\u00ed\u00adri\u00adcos repor\u00adta\u00addos no arti\u00adgo suge\u00adrem que o aumen\u00adto do \u00edndi\u00adce de com\u00adple\u00adxi\u00adda\u00adde econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca n\u00e3o neces\u00adsa\u00adri\u00ada\u00admen\u00adte refle\u00adte uma reor\u00adga\u00adni\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00adva local em dire\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o a seto\u00adres ver\u00addes, o que tor\u00adna neces\u00ads\u00e1\u00adrio estu\u00addos para iden\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adca\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00addes que pos\u00adsam con\u00adtri\u00adbuir para a pre\u00adser\u00adva\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ambi\u00aden\u00adtal asso\u00adci\u00ada\u00adda ao aumen\u00adto da complexidade.<\/p>\n

Os tes\u00adtes indi\u00adcam que um aumen\u00adto de 0,1 na com\u00adple\u00adxi\u00adda\u00adde ten\u00adde a ele\u00advar em 9,5% o des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto no per\u00edo\u00addo pre\u00adsen\u00adte e a redu\u00adzi-lo em 3,5% no per\u00edo\u00addo futu\u00adro. Os pre\u00ad\u00e7os da soja, da car\u00adne bovi\u00adna e dos pro\u00addu\u00adtos do extra\u00adti\u00advis\u00admo, por sua vez, t\u00eam efei\u00adto posi\u00adti\u00advo sobre o des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto em alguns dos tes\u00adtes. Al\u00e9m dis\u00adso, os tes\u00adtes indi\u00adcam ain\u00adda que a com\u00adple\u00adxi\u00adfi\u00adca\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00adva ten\u00adde a se asso\u00adci\u00adar ao cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto do des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto em muni\u00adc\u00ed\u00adpi\u00ados de bai\u00adxa com\u00adple\u00adxi\u00adda\u00adde e \u00e0 redu\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto em muni\u00adc\u00ed\u00adpi\u00ados de alta complexidade.<\/p>\n

Em ter\u00admos gerais, por\u00adtan\u00adto, o aumen\u00adto da com\u00adple\u00adxi\u00adda\u00adde n\u00e3o neces\u00adsa\u00adri\u00ada\u00admen\u00adte refle\u00adte uma reor\u00adga\u00adni\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00adva local em dire\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o a seto\u00adres ver\u00addes, o que tor\u00adna neces\u00ads\u00e1\u00adri\u00ados estu\u00addos para iden\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adca\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o de ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00addes que pos\u00adsam ali\u00adar pre\u00adser\u00adva\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ambi\u00aden\u00adtal com aumen\u00adto da com\u00adple\u00adxi\u00adda\u00adde. Al\u00e9m dis\u00adso, os resul\u00adta\u00addos apre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addos no arti\u00adgo indi\u00adcam que os deter\u00admi\u00adnan\u00adtes do des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto no per\u00edo\u00addo ava\u00adli\u00ada\u00addo coin\u00adci\u00addem com aque\u00adles repor\u00adta\u00addos na lite\u00adra\u00adtu\u00adra, como o pre\u00ad\u00e7o (ou lucra\u00adti\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde) da pecu\u00e1\u00adria, da agri\u00adcul\u00adtu\u00adra e da ati\u00advi\u00adda\u00adde extrativista.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 impor\u00adtan\u00adte notar que a vari\u00e1\u00advel de mai\u00ador impac\u00adto no des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto anu\u00adal e \u00fani\u00adca sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00adva em todos os mode\u00adlos e espe\u00adci\u00adfi\u00adca\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es \u00e9 a fis\u00adca\u00adli\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o ambi\u00aden\u00adtal, con\u00adfir\u00adman\u00addo o papel das pol\u00ed\u00adti\u00adcas p\u00fabli\u00adcas para pre\u00adser\u00adva\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o da \u00e1rea ver\u00adde na regi\u00e3o. Os tes\u00adtes indi\u00adcam ain\u00adda que um aumen\u00adto de 1% nas autu\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es do IBAMA reduz em 0,5% o des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto no mes\u00admo ano. Mais do que isso, as autu\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es pare\u00adcem gerar um vi\u00e9s pro\u00adte\u00adti\u00advo futu\u00adro, o que pode ser tan\u00adto resul\u00adta\u00addo da redu\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o do poten\u00adci\u00adal de des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto des\u00adve\u00adla\u00addo pela autu\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o, como tam\u00adb\u00e9m por colo\u00adcar a regi\u00e3o em evi\u00add\u00ean\u00adcia, ini\u00adbin\u00addo a der\u00adru\u00adba\u00adda da floresta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O pre\u00adsen\u00adte arti\u00adgo bus\u00adca ava\u00adlia se o incre\u00admen\u00adto da com\u00adple\u00adxi\u00adda\u00adde econ\u00f4\u00admi\u00adca pode fomen\u00adtar um pro\u00adces\u00adso de cres\u00adci\u00admen\u00adto sus\u00adten\u00adt\u00e1\u00advel da Amaz\u00f4\u00adnia bra\u00adsi\u00adlei\u00adra. Para tan\u00adto, o estu\u00addo ava\u00adlia os deter\u00admi\u00adnan\u00adtes da vari\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00e3o no des\u00adma\u00adta\u00admen\u00adto na Amaz\u00f4\u00adnia Legal em n\u00edvel muni\u00adci\u00adpal no per\u00edo\u00addo entre 2006 e 2021. Em par\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlar, o arti\u00adgo inves\u00adti\u00adga o efei\u00adto de mudan\u00ad\u00e7as qua\u00adli\u00adta\u00adti\u00advas na estrutura [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","tags":[],"made_publication_type":[78],"class_list":["post-2336","made_publication","type-made_publication","status-publish","hentry","made_publication_type-working-papers"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nComplexidade econ\u00f4mica e desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira — Made<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/madeusp.com.br\/en\/publications\/articles\/complexidade-economica-e-desmatamento-na-amazonia-brasileira\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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