Transmissão Assimétrica da Política Monetária sobre a Inflação por Grupos do IPCA: Uma Análise Empírica

This arti­cle inves­ti­ga­tes the impact of a res­tric­ti­ve mone­tary policy, repre­sen­ted by the ben­ch­mark inte­rest rate, on the infla­ti­on rate by group and sub­group of the con­sump­ti­on bas­ket, as mea­su­red by the Bro­ad Con­su­mer Pri­ce Index (IPCA) in Bra­zil. Using the Infla­ti­on Tar­ge­ting Regi­me, the Cen­tral Bank of Bra­zil adjusts the basic inte­rest rate, the Selic, to align infla­ti­on with the tar­get cen­ter. The IPCA is com­po­sed of nine main con­sump­ti­on groups, each con­tai­ning vari­ous sub­groups, items, and sub-items, with pri­ces and quan­ti­ti­es influ­en­ced by dif­fe­rent mar­ket struc­tu­res. This study empi­ri­cally eva­lu­a­tes how the­se dif­fe­rent groups and sub­groups res­pond to chan­ges in the Selic rate, employing the Local Pro­jec­ti­ons model appli­ed to a Bra­zi­li­an time seri­es data­ba­se from Janu­ary 2007 to Decem­ber 2023. The results show that the incre­a­se in the Selic rate dis­tinc­ti­vely redu­ces infla­ti­on in groups such as “Food and beve­ra­ges,” “Hou­sehold items,” and “Clothing,” but has an insig­ni­fi­cant impact on sub­groups such as “Hou­sing” and “Com­mu­ni­ca­ti­on.” This study con­tri­bu­tes to the unders­tan­ding of the effec­ti­ve­ness of mone­tary policy in Bra­zil, high­ligh­ting the need for dif­fe­ren­ti­a­ted con­si­de­ra­ti­ons for vari­ous con­sump­ti­on seg­ments when for­mu­la­ting eco­no­mic policies.
Keywords: Selic rate; disag­gre­ga­ted infla­ti­on; local projections

JEL: E52, E31, C32, E58.

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