Transmissão Assimétrica da Política Monetária sobre a Inflação por Grupos do IPCA: Uma Análise Empírica
This article investigates the impact of a restrictive monetary policy, represented by the benchmark interest rate, on the inflation rate by group and subgroup of the consumption basket, as measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in Brazil. Using the Inflation Targeting Regime, the Central Bank of Brazil adjusts the basic interest rate, the Selic, to align inflation with the target center. The IPCA is composed of nine main consumption groups, each containing various subgroups, items, and sub-items, with prices and quantities influenced by different market structures. This study empirically evaluates how these different groups and subgroups respond to changes in the Selic rate, employing the Local Projections model applied to a Brazilian time series database from January 2007 to December 2023. The results show that the increase in the Selic rate distinctively reduces inflation in groups such as “Food and beverages,” “Household items,” and “Clothing,” but has an insignificant impact on subgroups such as “Housing” and “Communication.” This study contributes to the understanding of the effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil, highlighting the need for differentiated considerations for various consumption segments when formulating economic policies.
Keywords: Selic rate; disaggregated inflation; local projections
JEL: E52, E31, C32, E58.
